FX Weekly Update: US CPI And UK GDP Take Center Stage

Key Takeaways

• Thursday is the main event risk point, with US CPI and a dense UK data cluster that can move USD and GBP quickly.

• Friday adds a second layer with Euro area GDP and inflation updates plus US PPI and consumer sentiment, which can keep markets reactive into the weekend.

• For finance teams, the goal is simple: reduce deadline FX, stage larger conversions where possible, and keep payment timing predictable.

This weekly snapshot covers the main currency drivers for February 9–13 and what treasury and AP teams typically do when inflation and growth data can move FX quickly. It starts with a quick scan you can share internally, then breaks out the drivers by currency.

At A Glance: Currency Themes

This Week’s Event Calendar

What This Means In Plain English

This is a two day risk week.

Thursday is the big one. UK releases land first, then US CPI follows. That combination can create sharp intraday moves and wider spreads. That is when corporate FX can get more expensive if you are forced to execute under time pressure.

Friday is not a cooldown. It stacks Euro area inflation and GDP updates with US PPI and consumer sentiment. For many teams, the practical risk is not guessing the direction. It is getting stuck converting late Friday because approvals slipped or a payable was not finalized earlier in the week.

USD: CPI Is The Week’s Main Driver

The US calendar builds through the week, starting with the Employment Cost Index on Tuesday and peaking with CPI on Thursday, followed by PPI and consumer sentiment on Friday.¹²¹⁰

What markets tend to focus on in CPI weeks:

• Core inflation momentum versus one off categories

• Services inflation signals

• Whether inflation progress looks steady or sticky

Practical angle many finance teams use this week

If you have a large USD conversion and some flexibility, consider staging execution across more than one day rather than choosing a single make or break timestamp on Thursday.

If you have dated payables, align coverage to the due date rather than trying to time a perfect level.

Confirm internal approvals early. Same day instructions still run into real processing windows, especially when markets move fast.

Quick USD execution checklist

• Confirm which USD payables are firm and dated by Tuesday

• Stage larger conversions if timing is flexible

• Avoid scheduling critical approvals directly on Thursday release windows

• Run a Friday cutoff check early so nothing gets forced late day

GBP: Thursday Morning Is A Dense Cluster

Thursday brings a heavy UK data cluster, including GDP and labour market indicators.³⁴ This matters for GBP because a single surprising print can shift expectations, and multiple releases at once can amplify the reaction when signals point in the same direction.

Why this matters in practice

GBP payables often sit inside a quote to approve to pay workflow. When approvals stretch into a data window, FX becomes a deadline task.

Two simple controls that help:

• Tighten quote validity windows on GBP priced inputs

• If a payable is committed and dated, bring forward execution instead of leaving it to Thursday morning

If you price or invoice in GBP, it is also a good week to review internal guidance on when to refresh quotes and how long approvals typically take.

EUR: Sentiment Early, Then Growth And Inflation Late Week

EUR has two distinct moments this week.

Monday starts with a sentiment pulse via Sentix.⁵ That can set the tone, especially if broader risk mood is fragile.

Friday is the more important operational risk point, with Euro area inflation updates and GDP releases.⁵⁶ When markets are sensitive to rate differentials, growth surprises can matter more than usual.

Operationally, Friday risk usually looks like this

• Approvals bunch up late week

• Cutoffs hit faster than expected

• A routine conversion turns into a deadline task

If you run recurring EUR supplier payments, the process win is usually earlier approvals and predictable payment timing, not trying to outsmart the market.

JPY: Current Account Is The Main Local Marker

Japan’s current account data lands Monday.⁷ This is not always a headline driver on its own, but it can matter at the margin for JPY when markets are focused on external balances and risk sentiment.

If you have near dated JPY invoices, the same operational rule applies: do not leave execution to the last possible day. When liquidity thins into late week, even routine payments can feel more stressful than they need to be.

AUD And NZD: Asia Sentiment And Inflation Expectations

The AU and NZ calendars are more about expectations and sentiment than top tier policy decisions this week, including inflation expectations measures.⁸⁹ Inflation expectations can matter because they feed the broader narrative around future policy settings and rate differentials.

For global teams, the practical watchouts are time zones and payment cutoffs. If your HQ is in North America or Europe, markets can move during APAC hours when your team is offline.

Two practical considerations for APAC linked currencies

• Build buffer time for APAC settlement windows and internal approvals

• Avoid late week beneficiary edits that can force rework and delay

Where FX Costs Creep Into Cross Border Payments

Most businesses do not lose money because they missed the perfect rate. They lose money because FX becomes a deadline task.

Common friction points:

• Converting on the day invoices are due

• Approvals that happen after banking cutoffs

• Last minute beneficiary edits that cause rework

• Manual payee entry errors that trigger delays

Process fixes that tend to pay off:

• Pre fund working balances for core currencies using multi currency accounts

• Make payment timing predictable with scheduled payments

• Reduce admin and error risk on supplier runs with batch payments

• When predictability matters, explore risk tools like forwards and risk management

FAQ

Is staging conversions always better than converting all at once?

Not always. Staging can reduce the chance of picking the worst moment, but it may not fit time critical payables. The practical goal is usually predictability, not perfect timing.

Should we wait until after US CPI to buy USD?

If a payable is committed and dated, many teams prioritize execution certainty over market timing. CPI can move markets quickly, and the risk is getting forced into a worse window if approvals slip.¹

Why do Friday releases feel riskier operationally?

Because approvals, cutoffs, and internal deadlines often collide. The market move may be manageable, but the operational squeeze creates avoidable cost and stress.

What is a simple playbook for this week?

Cover the known, dated payables first. Keep forecast volumes flexible. Avoid last day processing where you can.

Conclusion

For February 9–13, the week’s main FX risk is the Thursday cluster: UK GDP and labour data alongside US CPI.¹³ Friday adds a second volatility layer with Euro area inflation updates and GDP releases alongside US PPI and consumer sentiment.²⁵⁶ For most finance teams, the practical win is steady execution: stage larger conversions where possible, reduce late week processing, and align coverage to real payment dates.

How Xe Helps

Xe helps businesses manage international payments and FX exposure with more control and fewer last minute surprises. You can send international payments, improve predictability with scheduled payments, streamline supplier runs with batch payments, and manage working balances with multi currency accounts. If you want to discuss execution options for this week’s calendar, you can contact sales.

The content within this blog post is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. All figures and data are based on publicly available sources at the time of writing and are subject to change. Actual conditions may vary depending on location, timing, and personal circumstances. We recommend consulting official government resources or a licensed professional for the most up-to-date and personalized guidance.

Citations

¹ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Schedule of Selected Releases 2026 — (2026)
² U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Producer Price Index News Release Schedule — (2026)
³ Office for National Statistics — Release Calendar — (2026)
⁴ GOV.UK — UK Labour Market: February 2026 Announcement — (2025)
⁵ Eurostat — Release Calendar — (2026)
⁶ Eurostat — Euro Area GDP And Inflation Indicators — 2026)
⁷ Bank of Japan — Balance of Payments Statistics — (2026)
⁸ Reserve Bank of Australia — Inflation Expectations And Sentiment Indicators — (2026)
⁹ Reserve Bank of New Zealand — Survey of Expectations — (2026)
¹⁰ University of Michigan — Surveys of Consumers Release Information — (2026)

Information from these sources was taken on February 9, 2026.