FX Weekly Update: FOMC And BoC Decision Week

Key takeaways

• Two central bank decisions land on the same day: the Fed and the Bank of Canada, which can lift USD and CAD volatility around midweek.

• Friday is busy too, with US producer prices and Euro area GDP scheduled, plus Australia CPI earlier in the week.

• For finance teams, this is a “reduce surprises” week: stage larger conversions, lock known payables, and keep payment timing predictable.

This weekly snapshot covers the main currency drivers for January 26 to February 1, and what treasury and AP teams typically do when policy decisions and key data can move FX quickly. It starts with a quick scan you can share internally, then breaks out the drivers by currency.

At A Glance: Currency Themes

This Week’s Event Calendar

Note: the BLS has flagged that some release dates may be subject to change due to government service disruptions.⁵

What This Means In Plain English

This is a midweek decision cluster. When central banks speak, the market often reacts less to the headline decision and more to the guidance, language, and tone. That is what can create the sharpest FX swings.

For operating teams, the practical risk is simple: you get forced into a conversion or an urgent cross-border payment right when the market is moving and internal cutoffs are tight. The best weeks are boring weeks. This is not guaranteed to be one of them.

USD: Fed Decision Week, So Focus On The Message

The Fed’s two-day meeting runs January 27 to 28, with the decision and press conference scheduled on January 28.¹

What to watch in the press conference, in practical terms:

• Confidence vs caution: does the Fed sound comfortable with the current path, or emphasise “data dependence” more heavily?

• Inflation progress framing: do they point to continued progress, or highlight sticky categories?

• Financial conditions: any hint that markets have eased too much can change USD tone quickly.

Practical angle many finance teams use this week

• If you have a large conversion, consider staging execution across multiple tranches rather than choosing one “make or break” timestamp.

• If you have a dated payable, align coverage to the due date rather than trying to time a perfect level.

• Confirm internal approvals early. A “same day” instruction can still miss real processing windows.

CAD: BoC Decision Lands The Same Day

The Bank of Canada’s policy rate decision is scheduled for January 28, with the Monetary Policy Report published at the same time.² That combination can move CAD quickly, because the forecast narrative can matter almost as much as the decision.

What CAD-sensitive teams typically do

• Lock known CAD payables ahead of the decision window.

• Keep forecast conversions flexible if amounts can still change.

• If you price in CAD, tighten quote validity windows and avoid letting approvals drift into late-week execution.

EUR: GDP Day Matters More When The Calendar Is Light Elsewhere

Eurostat’s GDP release is scheduled for Friday, January 30.⁶ In weeks where the euro-area calendar is lighter on policy decisions, a growth print can become a bigger focal point than it would be otherwise.

Operationally, Friday risk often looks like this:

• Approvals bunch up.

• Banks and counterparties hit cutoffs.

• A “simple conversion” becomes a deadline task.

If you have recurring EUR supplier runs, the process win is usually earlier approvals and predictable payment timing, not trying to outsmart the market.

AUD: Australia CPI On Wednesday

Australia’s CPI release for December 2025 is scheduled for January 28.³ That is a major data point for AUD because inflation is a key input into rate expectations.

Two practical considerations for global teams:

• Time zones matter. If your HQ is in North America or Europe, you may be asleep when AUD is moving.

• Settlement and cutoffs vary. Build buffer time for APAC payment windows so you are not forced to rework payments later.

JPY: Not A Main Theme This Week, But Plan If You Have JPY Payables

There is no Bank of Japan decision scheduled during this week’s window.⁸ For most corporate audiences, that makes JPY a secondary watch.

Still, if you have near dated JPY invoices, the same operational rule applies: do not leave JPY execution to the last possible day. When liquidity thins into month end, even routine payments can become more stressful than they need to be.

US Data Layer: Trade Thursday, PPI Friday

Beyond the Fed, the late-week US data includes:

• US international trade in goods and services (Nov 2025) on January 29.⁴

• US PPI (Dec 2025) on January 30.⁵

These may not always dominate headlines, but in a “policy sensitive” market, second-tier data can still move rates and USD at the margin, especially if it confirms or challenges the week’s main narrative.

A Simple Execution Checklist For A Busy FX Week

Before Wednesday

• Confirm which payables are firm and dated.

• Stage large conversions if timing is flexible.

• Validate beneficiary details in your payee master file to reduce rework.

On decision day

• Avoid last-minute beneficiary edits.

• Do not schedule critical approvals right on top of announcement windows.

• Keep payment timing predictable for operational teams and suppliers.

Before Friday cutoffs

• Run a “due in five days” check so nothing gets forced into a late conversion.

• Confirm reference formats so suppliers can reconcile without follow-up.

Where FX Costs Creep Into Cross-Border Payments

Most businesses do not lose money because they “missed the perfect rate.” They lose money because FX becomes a deadline task.

Common friction points:

• Converting on the day invoices are due

• Intermediary deductions that create short payments and rework

• Manual payee entry errors that trigger delays

• Approvals that happen after banking cutoffs

Process fixes that tend to pay off:

• Pre-fund working balances for core currencies (multi-currency accounts)

• Schedule payment runs earlier (scheduled payments)

• Standardize vendor intake and reduce failed payments (payment methods)

• Reduce admin and error risk on supplier runs (batch payments)

FAQ

Is staging conversions always better than converting all at once?

Not always. It is a risk tradeoff. Staging can reduce the chance of picking the worst moment, but it may not fit if a payable is time-critical.

Should we hedge everything during central bank weeks?

Many teams prioritize the largest and most predictable exposures first. The goal is usually predictability, not market timing.

What if a payment date shifts after we plan the conversion?

Build buffer into payment planning, especially around approvals and shipping timelines. If you use hedging tools, what is possible depends on the instrument and terms.

Why do Friday releases feel riskier operationally?

Because approvals, cutoffs, and internal deadlines often collide. The market move may be manageable, but the operational squeeze creates avoidable cost and stress.

Conclusion

This week’s main FX risk is the midweek policy cluster: the Fed decision and press conference, plus the Bank of Canada decision on the same day.¹² Late-week data adds a second layer with US PPI and euro-area GDP, while Australia CPI can move AUD earlier in the week.³⁵⁶ For most teams, the practical win is steady execution: cover what you already know you must pay, avoid last-day processing, and keep payment timing predictable.

How Xe Helps

Xe can support corporate teams that need to manage international payments and FX exposure with more control and fewer last-minute surprises. You can send international payments, improve predictability with scheduled payments, streamline supplier runs with batch payments, and explore FX risk tools like forwards and risk management. If you want to talk through execution options for this week’s calendar, speak to an FX specialist.

The content within this blog post is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. All figures and data are based on publicly available sources at the time of writing and are subject to change. Actual conditions may vary depending on location, timing, and personal circumstances. We recommend consulting official government resources or a licensed professional for the most up-to-date and personalized guidance.

Citations

¹ Federal Reserve Board — Calendar: January 2026 (FOMC meeting and press conference) — (2026)
² Bank of Canada — Policy Interest Rate Announcement Schedule (2026 dates and timing) — (2025)
³ Australian Bureau of Statistics — Consumer Price Index, Australia (Future Releases) — (2026)
⁴ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — Release Schedule (International Trade release timing) — (2026)
⁵ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Schedule of Selected Releases (January 2026, including PPI and notice on release-date changes) — (2026)
⁶ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — Release Calendar: National Accounts - GDP (Eurostat) — (2026)
⁷ Eurostat — Quarterly National Accounts (GDP Flash Estimate Release Date) — (2026)
⁸ Bank of Japan — Monetary Policy Meetings Schedule — (2026)

Information from these sources was taken on January 26, 2026.