March 19, 2019 — 3 min read
The Pound is stable ahead of a day of uncertainty around the political situation and progress on Brexit. The third ‘meaningful vote’ now looks unlikely as the speaker of the house ruled out having the vote should it be the same or significantly the same. House of Commons Speaker John Bercow said he would not allow a third Brexit vote on "substantially the same" motion as MPs rejected last week. He cited a law written in 1604 for not allowing the third "meaningful" vote to move forward.
The PM would need to prove a significant change in the circumstance, this could be in the form of an extension – however as yet we have not had any feedback from the EU27 or a significant change in the support for the motion. This could be in the form of support from the DUP.
Today, we have the unemployment rate, jobless claims number and the average earnings for January. These are key pieces of data, and factors the Bank of England follows closely in its rate decisions. However, the main focus will be whether or not the third meaningful vote even will take place.
Keep a close eye on the screens today.
On the Euro front, we are yet to get a collective decision or even a view from the EU27 on the extension request. This will be something that needs to happen quickly with the 29th of March deadline drawing ever closer. Is the EU winding down the clock to leave no time for anything else?
Today we have the ZEW current situation survey which is expected to paint a pretty gloomy picture, however forecasters think the future picture may be better.
The Dollar has been up and down on risk sentiment over the past few weeks and today is slightly lower. The next market-moving event for the dollar will be tomorrow's monetary policy announcement from the Federal Reserve.
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