Market Consensus For The FOMC Interest Rate Decision On Thursday Morning

Xe Corporate APAC

March 18, 2019 3 min read

The AUDUSD opened at 0.7093 (mid-rate), and The NZDUSD opened at 0.6848 (mid-rate) this morning.

It’s been another subdued start to the trading week, with investors happy to sit on the side lines and waiting for Thursday’s data deluge before positioning their books.

This morning’s Westpac consumer sentiment report, along with the RBA’s monetary policy minutes are likely to be the highlights of our trading day.

US Dollar

Market consensus is that the Federal Reserve will revise their interest rate hike projections downwards on Thursday morning. At their December meeting, the Fed’s “dot plot” which outlines where each committee member expects rates to be at the end of each year, showed members expected the Fed would hike rates another 2 times this year following on from 4 hikes in 2018.

Since the December meeting, and on the back of a sharp fall in headline inflation (consumer price growth has fallen to 1.5% over the past 2 months, well below its 2.0% target) the new FOMC dot-plot forecasts are now expected to indicate no further policy tightening in 2019.

British Pound

The British pound has given back some of its recent gains after UK Prime Minister Theresa May cautioned that the planned Brexit vote due later this week could be delayed. Overnight, Commons speaker John Bercow said he would not allow a third Brexit vote on "substantially the same" motion as MPs rejected last week. He cited a law written in 1604 for not allowing the third "meaningful" vote to move forward.

Global equity markets are mixed, - Dow -0.04, S&P 500 +0.09, FTSE +0.98%, DAX -0.25%, CAC +0.14%, Nikkei +0.62%, Shanghai +2.47%. Gold prices are little changed trading at $1,301 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices have edged higher overnight, up 0.9% trading at $59.03 a barrel.

Mid-market rate

AUDUSD0.70930.2%NZDUSD0.68480.1%AUDEUR0.62610.1%NZDEUR0.60440.0%AUDGBP0.62610.1%NZDGBP0.51750.5%AUDJPY79.010.1%NZDJPY76.280.0%AUDNZD1.03590.1%NZDAUD0.9655-0.1%GBPAUD1.8653-0.6%NZDCAD0.91490.3% GBPNZD1.9324-0.5%
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