Risk is Down Today Amidst Trade War Tensions and Record Low Employment Data

Xe Corporate APAC

May 6, 2020 2 min read

The AUDUSD opens at 0.6399 and the NZDUSD opens at 0.6005 this morning.

Risk is off today, with the US fanning the flames of the Trade War, and record low Employment data out. The US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change was expected to come in as a horrible number, and did not disappoint. It came in at -20.2M Jobs for the month. As mentioned previously, being unemployed in the States today, getting circa USD $900 a week, ain’t what it used to be. However, while the drop in spending and economic activity may not be quite as bad as it normally would be with that many unemployed, the real question is how quickly they will be able to transition back to work. Especially if you compare this to countries that have tried to keep people in jobs, rather than just upping the unemployment pay-out. In a slightly positive development though, the increase in the weekly number of Unemployment Claims is trending down, with “only” 3 million new weekly claims expected overnight, compared to the 6 million per week that has been the recent trend.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came out yesterday saying the New Zealand economy has a safe haven advantage. While no currency trader, she does have a point. New Zealand is in a good position to recover, especially relative to other countries. It's positive employment data could be seen to highlight this, however, being a quarterly figure, it must be taken with a fair helping of salt.  

Global equity markets are up, Dow -0.7% S&P 500  -0.6%, FTSE +0.1%, DAX -1.2%, CAC -1.1%, Nikkei -2.8%, Shanghai +0.6%.

Gold prices are off 1.2% to USD$1,689 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices are also down slightly, off 1.1% to $24.1 a barrel.

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