June 18, 2019 — 2 min read
The RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for their 4th June meeting have just been released. The RBA cut the Cash Rate by 0.25% to 1.25% at this meeting.
The pertinent points in the RBA minutes include:
• Board agreed “more likely than not” further policy easing would be appropriate
• Labour market would be “particularly important” on deciding further easing
• Noted lower interest rates not only policy option available on unemployment
• Judged June rate cut would help reduce spare capacity in the labour market
• Data suggested spare capacity to remain in labour market for some time
• Factors limiting inflation, wage growth also expected to last for some time
• Lower rates would push down value of AUD$, deuce household debt repayments
• Aware that lower rates hurt savers, but would stimulate economy overall
• Judged lower rates would not spur risky rise in borrowing, or inflation
• Persistence of subdues inflation threatened to un-anchor inflation expectations
• Housing market remained weak, though auction clearance rates had picked up
• APRA easing of bank lending rules would lead to modest increase in borrowing capacity
• Escalation in Sino-US trade dispute intensified downside risk to global economy.
You can view the full release here - https://rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2019/2019-06-04.html
The Australia House Price Index (HPI) data for Q1 was also released. These came in worse than forecast:
• HPI (Q/Q) -3.0% Consensus -2.6%
• HPI (Y/Y) -7.4% Consensus -7.4%
The AUD is a little lower in immediate response.
Current indicative levels are:
AUD-USD 0.6830 / 0.6855
AUD-EUR 0.6080 / 0.6105
AUD-GBP 0.5445 / 0.5470
AUD-JPY 74.05 / 74.30
AUD-NZD 1.0520 / 1.0545
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