November 12, 2019 — 3 min read
News from the UK elections continue to effect the headlines as it is announced the Brexit Party will not be standing in more than 300 seats won by the Conservatives in the 2017 UK election, yet will stand in all of the seats held by Labour. This was done to support Boris’ pledge to stop the Brexit transition period beyond 2020 – however, the Brexit Party will still be competing against the conservatives in the key marginals the Tories are hoping to take. Boris welcomed the decision by Brexit party leader Nigel Farage and said a gridlocked hung parliament is the“ greatest threat to getting Brexit done.” With this news the pound rose significantly at almost a cent with GBPUSD up to 1.2875.
As expected the order to stand down was not welcomed by all Brexit Party candidates with Robert Wheel who was looking to stand in South Down labelling Nigel Farage a “disgrace to UK politics.” Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn followed suit by tweeting "One week ago Donald Trump told Nigel Farage to make a pact with Boris Johnson. "Today, Trump got his wish. This Trump alliance is Thatcherism on steroids and could send £500m a week from our NHS to big drugs companies. It must be stopped." Whether you call it the Leave Alliance or Trump Alliance, this move by Farage is expected to have a significant effect on the December Election. As it stands The Conservatives only need nine more seats to win a majority and leave by the end of January with a deal.
In terms of UK data Monday’s GDP figures showed growth of 0.3% QoQ and a 1.1% yearly rate. Both results were lower than the consensus, with the 1.1% yearly rate being the lowest since 2012. Later on today the UK labour market report will be released with the Average Earnings and ILO Unemployment Rate being the data to look out for – these expected to come in at 3.8% and 3.9% respectively.
Today President Trump is due to make an appearance at the New York Economic Club where he is expected to set out his economic priorities going forward but also comment on any progress made in US-Sino trade talks. We received mixed messages from both sides last week with Trump being more Hawkish and making it clear he is still yet to agree to lift the tariffs, so today’s talk will hopefully give some clarity to the markets.
At the time of writing:
GBPUSD – Trading above 1.28 at 1.2830
GBPEUR – Trading above 1.16 at 1.1640
EURUSD – Trading below 1.11 at 1.1022
Special Notes: The figures are based on the live mid-market rates, correct as of 08:30 GMT on 12/11/2019, and are provided for indicative purposes only. Live mid-market rates are not available to consumers and are for informational purposes only. The rates we quote for money transfer can be selected via the page on our website ‘Live Money Transfer rates’.
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