February 13, 2020 — 3 min read
Markets have once again turned risk averse overnight, with the Chinese city of Hubei the latest outbreak focus. With a European tech conference cancelled, as well as fears in South Korea and Japan. The medium and long-term impacts are still non quantified. Currency markets do not like uncertainty.
And so, the now go-to bellwether currency is the USD, which moved above the psychological level of 99.00 which has been touted for some days. As a consequence most currency pairs have moved lower against the Greenback. One of the more notable casualties is the most liquid pair - EURUSD. Generally regarded as a low volatility play, it’s has now moved down over 13.5 % in the last two years, and tests key support.
GBPEUR has gained momentarily as a result, and indeed UK importers can be buoyed by a much healthier session for GBP across the board. Risk bearing currencies like AUD, NZD and CAD have all suffered as a by-product, and will be dictated to by Geopolitical fears related to the Coronavirus outbreak.
Yesterday did not help the EUR on the data from with Industrial production numbers much lower than expected at -2.1%, a huge shift. And this fragility for the single currency will today be magnified by German CPI inflation releases. For the EURUSD traded pair, the release of US CPI inflation numbers later in the session could have a similar push/pull impact.
Back to the UK and today we see PM Boris Johnson reshuffle his cabinet, and whilst not significantly market moving; the emphasis will be closely eyed for negotiations with Brussels.
One final thing to note is the release this morning of the RICS house price balance numbers here in the UK. This number has shown a positive swing, the post UK. election decision clearly has people moving on up. Long may it continue.
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