All is Quiet in the Markets Ahead of US Jobs Data

Xe Corporate APAC

July 4, 2019 2 min read

The AUDUSD opens at 0.7022 and the NZDUSD opens at 0.6688 - both open lower this morning.

Financial markets have paused ahead of tonight’s US monthly jobs report. An increase in jobs of circa 150k is expected and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain steady at 3.6%. An uptick in the unemployment rate would lock in a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on 1 August.

Over the last few weeks we have seen the likes of the AUD and NZD make solid gains against the US Dollar as expectations of a US rate cut have increased.

The key week for local markets will be early August with both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reviewing interest rates on August 6th and 7th respectively. We expect the RBA to hold rates at their new low of 1.0% but we do think the RBNZ will lower rates again down to a fresh record low of 1.25%.

Yesterday in Australia, the newly re-elected Government of Scott Morrison passed their massive tax cut package that will see more than 10 million Australians receive over AUD$1,000 in tax cuts. This extra AUD$10 billion should help boost demand in the economy and may signal we have seen the low point in the AUD for this cycle.

AIG Construction Index hit the wires this morning – not likely to be a market-mover. The influential and closely watching US non-farm payroll employment figures will be released tonight.

Global equity markets were generally higher on the day - Dow +0.7%, S&P 500 +0.7%, FTSE -0.1%, DAX +0.1%, CAC +0.1%, Nikkei +0.3%, Shanghai -0.3%.

Gold prices dipped 0.2% to USD$1,415. WTI Crude Oil prices fell 0.6% to US$56.67 per barrel.

Upcoming Data Releases

  • AUD: AIG Construction Index - 8:30 AEST / 10:30 NZST

  • USD: US Non-Farm Payroll  Employment Numbers - 22:30 AEST / 00:30 NZST

Mid-Market Rates

AUDUSD0.7022-0.2%NZDUSD0.6688-0.2%AUDEUR0.6223-0.2%NZDEUR0.59570.2%AUDGBP0.5583-0.2%NZDGBP0.5317-0.3%AUDJPY75.70-0.2%NZDJPY72.09-0.3%AUDNZD1.04990.1%NZDAUD0.9523-0.1%GBPAUD1.79120.2%NZDCAD0.8729-0.4% GBPNZD1.88080.3%
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