The US Election, the Dollar, and the Pound: what’s the forecast?

Currently both election polls and the betting odds predict a clear lead for Joe Biden. However, it is important to cast your mind back to the night before the 2016 election when the same polls and odds had had Hillary Clinton as the clear favourite.

Xe Corporate

October 13, 20204 min read

The White House in Washington DC, United States

The United States presidential election is just over 3 weeks away. For the US citizens, these last few weeks leading up to Election Day are going to be a whirlwind.

One of the areas that this election could have a major impact is on the value of the US Dollar. Earlier events this year such as the coronavirus pandemic have already led to fluctuations in the dollar’s value, and the election of a new president—and all that comes with it—could potentially lead to more.

What's the forecast?

Currently both election polls and the betting odds predict a clear lead for Joe Biden. However, it is important to cast your mind back to the night before the 2016 election when the same polls and odds had had Hillary Clinton as the clear favourite.

The currency markets will have priced in a Biden victory to a certain extent, and therefore should Biden manage to displace the current president we could see a relatively muted reaction. If Donald Trump manages to hold onto the White House we could expect to see a
significant unwinding of positions that were based on an assumed Biden victory.

Traditional wisdom would dictate that a Biden victory could lead to huge spending and tax increases which could see the Dollar weaken further, however many now believe that a safe and stable pair of hands for the US recovery from the COVID pandemic may just be the thing the Dollar needs to rebound.

Looking at levels, the below Reuters FX Poll shows that markets are expecting the Pound to hold steady with a weakening US Dollar showing smart money targeting a level of 1.3000 at year ending climbing to 1.3400 by mid 2021.

Reuters FX Poll illustrating predictions for GBP and INR in the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021

How should businesses respond?

Nobody knows for certain where the markets could go next, and this uncertainty and volatility can have both a negative and positive impact on company bottom line, particularly where there is an exposure to USD.

With expert guidance from Xe, your business can confidently navigate the choppy waters of financial uncertainty.

In today’s volatile foreign exchange markets, we work harder to protect your business from exchange rate fluctuation. Our solutions are designed to take the uncertainty out of global
payments so you can stay focused on running your business.

  • Market Orders
    Flexible with your transfer time? Pick a rate and transfer automatically when the market hits your desired rate.

  • Forward Contracts
    Lock in a rate for future transfers. Transfer anytime at your locked rate within 3 years.

  • FX Options & Structured FX Products
    Bespoke solutions uniquely designed for your business needs, provided by our sister company, HiFM Limited.

  • FX Risk Management
    Currency volatility impacts your business. We deliver a risk management strategy to meet your specific objectives.

If you would like to find out how Xe can help your business to manage international payments and minimise the risks of foreign exchange volatility, please call our Corporate Team in the UK on +44 (0) 1753 623 555 or North America on +1 (877) 932-6640

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