FX Weekly Update: Fed Minutes And Global Growth Data Take Focus

Key takeaways

• Mid-week, markets focus on Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes for clues about future US rates and inflation dynamics.

• US PCE inflation data on Friday is the week’s primary macro driver for the US dollar and global yield expectations.

• Outside the US, Japanese growth data and European production figures set the tone for JPY and EUR dynamics early in the week.

Global markets are navigating a quieter start to the week with several holidays and thin liquidity in Asia and North America, then key speeches and data indicators from the Fed and inflation prints later in the week.

This weekly snapshot covers the main macroeconomic drivers and what finance, treasury, and accounts payable teams typically watch when inflation and central bank discussion data can influence FX markets. It begins with a quick scan you can share internally, then breaks out themes by currency.

At A Glance: Currency Themes

This Week’s Event Calendar

What This Means In Plain English

This week begins with thin liquidity and several market holidays. That can exaggerate price moves when data or commentary arrives. The central theme mid-week is the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes. These minutes provide insight into policymaker debate about inflation and the balance of risks. They can influence expectations for when rates might shift and push yields — and therefore USD — in response.¹

By Friday, markets turn to the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. That release can move markets by either confirming or tempering inflation momentum and thus reshaping rate expectations.¹

Elsewhere, Japan’s growth data and European production figures early in the week set the backdrop for JPY and EUR sentiment, especially if risk appetite changes in response to Fed language.

USD: Fed Minutes And PCE Are The Main Drivers

The Fed doesn’t announce a policy decision this week, but the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday offer valuable insight on internal debate around inflation, rates, and the economic outlook. Markets often react to nuances — whether policymakers expressed caution or confidence in inflation momentum — more than to the actual rate decision.¹

Personal Consumption Expenditures data on Friday is the most important scheduled release for USD sentiment this week. Because the PCE price index is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, a hotter–than–expected reading can support expectations for tighter policy, higher yields, and a stronger USD. Conversely, softer PCE prints can ease pressure on rate expectations and encourage a risk-on tone.

Practical tips for finance teams

• If you have large USD exposures and some timing flexibility, avoid concentrating conversions in the narrow windows around Wednesday’s minutes or Friday’s PCE data.

• Confirm approval timelines and internal cutoffs early in the week to avoid last-minute processing during volatile windows.

EUR: Production Data And Sentiment In The Spotlight

Euro area markets start the week with industrial production and risk sentiment cues. While not top tier like inflation or GDP, these figures provide an early read on growth momentum in the eurozone. Combined with broader global risk sentiment (shaped partly by US data), EUR can see moves on cross-asset flows even absent a major headline release.²

If sentiment tilts toward risk-off after the Fed minutes or PCE, EUR can weaken on broader flows even without a local macro catalyst.

Practical operational note
Ensure EUR invoice approvals are finalized before Friday so payments are not squeezed into late-week windows when spreads can widen.

JPY: Growth Data Sets A Baseline

Japan releases preliminary GDP and production figures early in the week. Japan has narrowly avoided recession and posted very modest growth in recent quarters, which underscores ongoing questions about the economy’s resilience.¹

Weak growth data can continue to weigh on JPY relative to currencies backed by stronger growth or tightening expectations, especially if global yields rise on Fed signals.

What teams can do

• Reduce last-day execution risk for JPY, especially if liquidity thins later in the week.

• If you have JPY payables coming due, aim to confirm approvals mid-week.

GBP And AUD/NZD: Risk Appetite And Liquidity

The week is light on top-tier UK economic events, but corporate sentiment and softer confidence in the UK economy can add pressure to GBP at the margin — particularly if global yields rise and risk sentiment narrows spreads.²

AUD and NZD often trade broader risk appetite and carry dynamics. With pockets of holidays in Asia (e.g., lunar new year) and thin liquidity in early sessions, AUD and NZD can be more reactive to global yield and risk sentiment shifts this week.

Practical points

• For risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD, manage payment timing with awareness of APAC holidays and session closures.

• If your HQ is in North America or Europe, remember APAC session volatility can emerge while your teams are offline.

Where FX Costs Creep Into Cross-Border Payments

Most businesses do not lose money because they miss the perfect rate. They lose money because FX becomes a deadline task.

Common friction points

• Converting on the day invoices are due

• Approvals happening after banking cutoffs

• Manual payee detail errors triggering rework

Process fixes that tend to pay off

• Multi-currency accounts provide flexibility to hold balances when timing matters

• Scheduled payments help avoid last-minute conversions

• Batch payments reduce admin and error risk on supplier runs

• When predictability matters, explore forwards and broader risk management tools

FAQ

Why do Fed meeting minutes matter for FX?

Meeting minutes reveal how deeply policymakers discussed risks, inflation, and future policy moves. Markets often move on perceived shifts in tone or emphasis, not just decisions.

Is PCE different from CPI?

Yes, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and often carries more weight in rate expectations than CPI.

Should I wait for PCE to execute USD conversions?

If your payable is committed and dated, many teams prioritize execution certainty over timing a data release. Trying to time around PCE can squeeze approvals and cutoffs.

How does liquidity affect FX early in the week?

Holidays like Presidents’ Day and lunar new year can thin trading volumes. In thin markets, even smaller flows can move prices more than usual.

Conclusion

The main FX focus is on Federal Reserve meeting minutes mid-week and Friday’s PCE inflation update.¹ Those releases can steer global yield expectations and USD direction. Elsewhere, modest growth data out of Japan and European production figures set the early backdrop for JPY and EUR dynamics. For treasury and finance teams, the key practical win is execution discipline: confirm approvals early, stage conversions where possible, and avoid squeezing payments into low-liquidity or high-volatility windows.

How Xe Helps

Xe helps businesses manage international payments and FX exposure with more control and fewer last-minute surprises. You can send international payments, make timing more predictable with scheduled payments, streamline supplier runs with batch payments, and manage working balances through multi-currency accounts. If you want to discuss execution options for this week’s calendar, you can contact sales.

The content within this blog post is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. All figures and data are based on publicly available sources at the time of writing and are subject to change. Actual conditions may vary depending on location, timing, and personal circumstances. We recommend consulting official government resources or a licensed professional for the most up-to-date and personalized guidance.

Citations

¹ What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (February 16–20) — (2026)
² FXStreet Economic Calendar Market Preview — (2026)

Information from these sources was taken on February 16, 2026.