2013-03-22 10:17 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
Market participation was low as eurozone uncertainty limited position taking. EUR was once again marooned either side of 1.2900 after failing to sustain a move in either direction on conflicting risks. Fears of a Cyprus EMU exit have risen, but FX market participants point to the tendency for policy makers to come up solutions to keep member states within the eurozone. Amid the eurozone uncertainty Cable maintained its bid tone around 1.5200 and AUD-USD held firm around 1.0430. JPY posted the biggest footprint on stop loss activity via USD-JPY below 94.50 after the as-expected opening press conference from new BoJ Governor Kuroda on Thursday.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD is limited due to Cyprus uncertainty, leaving it in a narrow range close to 1.2900. A softer than expected German Ifo reading saw a small dip from 1.2920 down to 1.2895, but it has since recovered the 1.2920 level. Without concrete developments from Cyprus EUR should tread a 1.2875-1.2950 range in the short term. EUR downside risk increased significantly this week, but the lack of sustained movement under the 200-dma around 1.2975-80 and overstretched short positions kept prices stable. There is also caution in the FX space over a potential Cyprus deal. In recent years eurozone policy makers have tended to cobble together last ditch deals to bailout member states and this risk is keeping short term accounts sidelined.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY headed to 94.20 as weak longs cutting back exposure following yen gains over the last 24 hours. JPY-cross heaviness added weight as specs were more comfortable buying JPY after yesterday's press conference from BoJ Governor Kuroda. Kuroda signalled more policy easing, yet fell short of the bold remarks that were widely anticipated. Cyprus is the potential mover into the weekend, with the market still having to wait until April 3-4 for BoJ to ease. There had been talk of a potential emergency meeting, but none of the policy makers indicated this yesterday and USD-JPY was due a correction. A break of 94.50 fuelled stop loss selling and bids were filled down to 94.20 lows ahead of larger support at 94.00.[GBP, USD]
GBP benefited from eurozone uncertainty, which left EUR-GBP close to 0.8500 and Cable just a short distance from the 1.5200 region. Longs are still positioned for a Cable run on stops at late February highs around 1.5220-25, which held on Thursday. Buyers are tipped intra-day from 1.5150-60 and 1.5120. The GBP tone is looking better than it has done of late after various comments against further sterling weakness from BoE Governor King and other BoE members over the last week or so. After yesterday's U.K. retail sales rebound the outlook is for a steady hand, which could remain in place until Carney takes over in July and the BoE explains its intermediate thresholds for the revised policy remit, which was announced at the U.K. Budget.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF traded off EUR-USD movement. After testing 1.2200 in early trade it met a decent local name bid and headed back over 1.2225, which came in tandem with EUR-USD's move from 1.2890 to 1.2940. We think SNB are concerned over a pick up swissy inflows on any potential fallout from Cyprus. SNB's Moser reminded markets recently that negative interest rates is still an option and also said yesterday that current policy geared towards securing the 1.2000 cap would remain for the foreseeable future. The market should remain in a holding pattern until the issue over Cyprus is resolved and the EUR-CHF may be limited from 1.2230 to 1.2250 amid good standing offers.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD is firm around 1.0250 after it bounced from the 1.0200 level at Thursday's North American open. Corporate buyers reportedly swooped in near the figure and the fact that stocks have generally struggled, along with commodities has been a supportive factor. Offers are seen from 1.0250, and are said to be lined up to 1.0300, so ranges may hold up for the time being.