2013-02-20 11:26 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
The dollar was mixed during the European morning as equity market gains ran out of steam in Europe after decent gains in Asia. In the FX market, movement was influenced by macro fund positioning. Of note, EUR-USD's rise over 1.3430 met persistent interest from a U.S. custodial name on behalf of a real money account. GBP plunged after the BoE minutes revealed a 6-3 for unchanged policy, which raised expectations of more policy stimulus ahead. Cable dropped around 140 pips to reach new trend lows at 1.5294 and EUR-GBP surged over 0.8760. JPY experienced consolidation amid general caution ahead of the decision on the new BoJ Governor, though USD-JPY held on to the 93.00 level and headed back over 93.50 due to offshore fund demand. In Asia, NZD was a good mover after RBNZ Governor Wheeler said NZD is overvalued and it stood ready to intervene if necessary, which forced it from 0.8470 to just under 0.8400 by early Europe and it extended to the 0.8360 area.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD topped out over 1.3430 amid good sell-interest from a large U.S. custodial name, leaving the pair hanging just in front of short term support at 1.3380. Short term bias is skewed to higher levels after specs forced out buy stops in Asia, though range trading may well continue given the pending Italian election, which is a potential risk for the eurozone. Sellers are tipped into 1.3440-50, while large order flow is noted from 1.3475.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY consolidates after it pulled back from the 93.80 region in Asia on a reduction in short yen positions. Stops were triggered through 93.30 in late Asia, but support held in front of 93.00, where large stops are noted. European names bought the dip after the European open after weak Japan trade data underpinned Japan policy risk. BoJ board member Morimoto gave a dovish and said it would achieve the 2% CPI target as soon as possible. However, short term players are cautious ahead of the BoJ Governor announcement, which will now take place after PM Abe's trip to the U.S. on February 21-24. The press have said PM Abe and Finance Minister Aso have clashed on the issue.[GBP, USD]
GBP plunged after BoE voted 6-3 for unchanged policy. King, Miles and Fisher voted for more quantitative easing, which fueled a Cable drop from 1.5440 to just under 1.5300, which are new trend lows. EUR-GBP also jumped from 0.8690 to just over 0.8760 after option barriers at 0.8750 gave way. For some weeks there have been forecasts for a Cable test of 1.5250 and this may come sooner than expected after today's BoE minutes raise expectations of more policy stimulus ahead. Long term fund managers have also reportedly increased short positions on expectations that when Carney takes the reins at the BoE on July-1 policy will remain dovish for longer.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF ran into good selling pressure after it started the session close to 1.2350 following yesterday's comments from SNB's Jordan after the European close. SNB's Jordan gave EUR-CHF a boost from 1.2340 to the 1.2355-60 region after he said the Bank will enforce the EUR-CHF floor (1.2000) with the "utmost determination", adding the SNB's FX policy is focused on ensuring prices stability. He said the Bank's current policies are accepted by the IMF, and by global central banks. Local names were keen to sell over 1.2350 and it headed back to the 1.2330 region, which was compounded to a degree by an early stop hunt in USD-CHF to 0.9185 lows, but it backed up on U.S. custodial account offers in EUR-USD on upticks. Overall, EUR-CHF is still likely to hold steady in front of 1.2300, but USD and EUR fluctuations are leaving it sidelined to a degree.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD maintained firmer levels after it moved to trend highs just over 1.0135 on Tuesday following another batch of weak data. The 1.0050 level held up last week in the face of what was thought to have been selling related to the Nexen/CNOOC deal. There has been some talk a good portion of the deal will be funded through existing Canadian investments however, which has perhaps resulted in some decent short covering. The rally had little in the way of resistance on Monday, when both Canada and the U.S. were absent from the market, and higher levels prompted more buying this morning. Further topside movement may begin to meet some liquidity into the 1.0140 region ahead of outstanding 1.0150 barriers and more are layered at 1.0175 to 1.0200.