2013-02-18 11:27 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
It was a quiet market today after the G20 meeting was largely as-expected. Holidays in the U.S. and Canada also dampened interest and there was no market moving data due today. ECB's Draghi speaks during the European afternoon, but he is unlikely deviate from previous comments made late last week and after the ECB press conference. EUR continued to meet selling pressure on upticks, but it has not threatened key support at 1.3260-65, which will be a target for short positions later in the week. JPY should now resume its downtrend after the G20. PM Abe reiterated that BoJ law could still be changed if the BoJ did not meet the 2% CPI target, which boosted USD-JPY over 84.20 overnight. GBP remained under pressure on poor fundamentals and there are signs that long-term players are adding to short positions, which saw Cable extend to new trend lows under 1.5440.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD bottomed out ahead of 1.3320 in early Europe. A supranational account was an early buyer of EUR-USD, while an Asian sovereign had a good interest and a large Asian fund buy order went through EUR-JPY. EUR-USD jumped from 1.3340 to reach 1.3380 highs, but it is now in territory where fund names have been selling in recent sessions. Since EUR-USD broke down after the ECB press conference any upticks have been used as selling opportunities. On the downside, the 1.3300 area has seen increased order flow, while lower down the 1.3260-65 area is still key for the long-term uptrend.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY firmed up from 93.50 in early Asia after the G20 statement did not specifically direct criticism at Japan. Overall, most comments from various officials on the weekend were happy with the current Japanese policy stance as long as it was not aimed at directly devaluing its currencies. There was broad agreement that a strong Japan was good for global growth. JPY shorts got added traction after PM Abe said it could still change BoJ law if BoJ policies were not effective in getting CPI to the 2% target. USD-JPY broke 94.00 and extended to just over 94.20, while EUR-JPY rallied out of 125.00 towards the 125.70 area.[GBP, USD]
Cable hit new trend lows after 1.5450 barriers were extinguished after the London open. The move lower coincided with reports that fund managers have shunned the pound after CFTC data revealed GBP shorts rose to eight month highs of 16,776 on the Friday release. Sterling bears were emboldened by comments from BoE's Weale, who said it may need to weaken further in order to rebalance Britain's economy. This would be the most natural means of resolving the problem, said Weale in a speech delivered on Saturday. The Cable downside may slow intra-day due to good bids from 1.5430 to 1.5400, where another round of barriers are noted.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF is on a supportive footing after it firmed up from 1.2315 to 1.2340 during the Asian session. USD-CHF led the move higher in the cross, but the lack of bounce in EUR-USD threatens to weigh on EUR-CHF. Selling pressure was noted on upticks after offers from 1.2340-50 held and it trades around 1.2320 in quiet trade. Underneath 1.2300 there are bids noted from 1.2290 to the 1.2270 area. USD-CHF is supportive and could see the upside gain momentum if offers give way from 0.9270. Like recent sessions EUR-USD will determine broader directional bias. However, the pick up in the dollar over the last week has seen sovereign names take advantage and selling pressure has increased on on upticks.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD is holding steady around 1.0070 after it spiked up on Friday after weaker Canadian manufacturing data. Overall, USD-CAD is still inside the familiar trading range, with, with good support still seen at parity. On the other side of the ledger, offers are noted up to 1.0100, which are protecting buy stops higher up.