2012-12-10 20:46 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
A lack of data, flat equities, and holiday trading conditions combined to keep the FX market very quiet in N.Y. on Monday. Most major dollar pairings remained inside of 30-40 point ranges, and traded volumes were reportedly light. EUR-USD ranged between 1.2910 and 1.2942, while USD-JPY opened under 82.15, before peaking at 82.42 in afternoon dealings. Dealers said one-off orders are becoming more frequent at this time of the year, which, with a lack of liquidity generally, may lead to choppy trade into year end. Tuesday's calendar picks up slightly, with October trade data, and wholesale data on tap.
EUR-USD rallied over 1.2940 from 1.2900 on short covering by intra-day accounts in morning trade. Oversold levels on the intra-day chart triggered the move, which tripped light stops. Follow though was limited thereafter as momentum slowed ahead of offers tipped into 1.2940-50, while larger are noted from 1.2970. There was slso more than one reserve manager protecting the downside since the Asian open after several failed attempts to break 1.2880 over the course of the session. Range players may be more inclined to wait for better levels to sell into as prices drift mid-range in quiet N.Y. trade.[USD, JPY]
Japanese buyers underpinned USD-JPY from 82.10 during the European morning, which encouraged a move back towards 82.30 by the N.Y. open. Offshore names are also expected to place bids at 82.00 after a leading U.S. name recommended a long position today, with a stop at 81.50 to target 84.00 based on a LDP election victory. Under 82.00 there is also a double bottom close to 81.70, which will encourage range players. The immediate influence is coming from outstanding 82.20 expiries today and excessive yen shorts, which reached fresh five year highs last week. After the N.Y. options cut range players may look for a move back towards 82.40-50, where exporter offers are tipped, but overall more range bound action looks likely ahead of the FOMC meeting.BoJ is likely to ease next week said sources to Reuters, with the mostly likely option boosting its asset purchase and lending program by some 5-10 tln yen. This would come on top of the 91 tln yen in place for that program, which hasn't yield much success if judged solely by the revised -3.5% Q3 GDP reading posted by Japan last night.[GBP, USD]
Cable was underpinned ahead of 1.6050 in N.Y. Reserve management flow, option hedging and M&A related activity put a floor in place despite the underlying bearish tone. Cable broke down last week on poor fundamentals and a weak technical backdrop. It seems likely that intra-day accounts will sell upticks ahead of the 1.6100 pivot. There are no new fundamental developments to digest. U.K. data this week should reaffirm triple-dip recession risk, which backs expectations for further stimulus in 2013. Under 1.6000 there are good support levels from 1.5990 to 1.5950-60.[USD, CHF]
USD-CHF hovered under the 0.9350 region in low volume trade, but it maintained largely all of the recent gains following the breakdown in eurozone sentiment. The risk backdrop is still likely to influence near-term action and bias is on last week's highs around 0.9380 and offers from 0.9400. Buyers are seen from 0.9320 in the near-term and through 0.9300. EUR-CHF is on the defensive as eurozone uncertainty drove funds into Swiss safety, leaving the cross around 1.2065 after it was unable to sustain the sharp move over 1.2150 last week. The SNB should reaffirm its commitment to policy stimulus at the end of this week, including the lower limit at 1.2000.[USD, CAD]
USD-CCAD didn't quite manage at 20 point range through the North American session, and was stuck between 0.9868 and 0.9985. Like other major dollar pairings, there was minimal interest on Monday, though the CAD did manage to hold on to last week's post-jobs report gains. The Canadian jobs surge supported retention of the BoC's tightening bias. In addition, the U.S. jobs report buoyed the CAD as well. Progress on USD-CAD's downside is slow due to support from 0.9865 to 0.9850, but Friday's break down should support selling pressure on upticks and offers are widely tipped from 0.9900-10 and 0.9940-50.