2012-12-06 21:20 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Thursday, though EUR-USD losses were considerable after the ECB press conference. As chief Draghi left the door open for further rate cuts in the future. EUR-USD fell about 1% to lows of 1.2950, after opening near 1.3080. U.S. data consisted of weekly jobless claims, though despite being higher than expected, had little market impact. Meanwhile, USD-JPY dipped to 82.20 before recovering back to 82.40 in light trade, while cable followed EUR-USD's lead lower, touching 1.6040. On the fiscal cliff front, Senate Leader Reid said no compromise will be possible until Republicans move on tax rates, without which the Dems won't consider spending cuts. Meanwhile, the White House has stated that it doesn't believe the 14th Amendment gives it the power to ignore the debt ceiling, though the Senate is now trying to vote him that power with a simple majority. That is likely to be over protest and fillibuster, and have little chance of being approved in the Republican-controlled House.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD hit intra-day lows over the ECB presser after ECB left rate unchanged as expected. It extended full allotment at the refinancing operations and maintained the fix rate until at least July. EUR moved into 1.3025 after it topped out over 1.3080. The ECB downgraded the growth and inflation outlook, but warned that risks to the forecast remain on the downside. Activity was expected to remain weak then improve in H2 2013. Draghi said today's decision was made by consensus but confirmed that negative interest rates on the deposit facility was discussed, but did not elaborate when asked about the issue at the Q&A. Sell stops were a feature on the way down, with stops taken out at 1.3020, 1.3000, 1.2980, and 1.2960. The pairing made its way to lows of 1.2950 before inching slightly higher into the close.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY and the JPY crosses consolidated yesterday's gains, but upward momentum was limited to a degree. Increasing expectations of a LDP election victory kept yen shorts in control, but excessive positioning is still a restrictive factor. USD-JPY added to yesterday's gains to trade at 82.62 highs, but could not clear exporter offers and there are also residual flows related to outstanding options that are noted from 82.90-00. Buyers are noted from the 82.10-20 area, with offshore names tipped, while heavy Japanese interest is noted under 82.00. USD-JPY tripped intra day stops under 82.30 (London lows), resulting in a brief dip to 82.20. Buyers returned however, taking it back toward 82.40 into the close.[GBP, USD]
Cable took its cue from EUR-USD in N.Y. trade, sagging to 1.6040 lows after opening near 1.6125. Looking to Friday, the pair is expected to maintain tight ranges around 1.6100 due to the influence of large option strikes at 1.6100 that have been in the market for the last two sessions. Adding to sterling demand on dips is the recent news that HSBC will sell its 15.6% stake in Ping An insurance to Thailand's Charoen Pokphand Group. EUR-GBP corporate hedging is noted on upticks, leaving it close to 0.8110-20. The Cable upside is restricted by hedging activity ahead of year-end at 1.6125-30, along with option barriers at 1.6150. The market shrugged off yesterday's fiscal neutral Autumn Budget despite it raising the risk of a U.K rating downgrade.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF is held to 1.2100-10, where option expiries are due to roll off today. The cross posted a sharp correction from yesterday's 1.2168 high. The cross moved under 1.2100 in N.Y. trade, as post-ECB EUR-USD losses overwhelmed. Some specs got caught long after the market got carried away with Swiss policy risk following the decision by large Swiss banks to charge up to 1% on CHF deposits. We do not think this is a precursor to capital control measures or negative deposit rates, with the situation in the eurozone arguably on a slightly more stable footing, while the global growth outlook may be better next year if China and the U.S. push on. However, today's Swiss CPI data does highlight the importance of SNB's policy stance after CPI unexpectedly fell to -0.4% y/y from -0.2% and there may be some speculative swissy shorts that are put on ahead of Friday's SNB policy review. USD-CHF is supported around 0.9275-80, but offers from 0.9300-10 were filled in on the back of general USD strength, taking USD-CHF to 0.9340.[USD, CAD]
If the five minute chart were an EKG, USD-CAD would have been on life support in early North American trade. The pairing traded inside of 0.9910-20 for three hour after teh open, despite the volatility in EUR-USD. Dealers said offers were moved from the 0.9950 level to 0.9930, while bids remained in place at 0.9900. Later, USD-CAD popped over 0.9920 from recent lows just under 0.9905 following the horrible Ivey PMI result. With sellers noted from 0.9930 though, upside was contained. Later in the session, the pairing finally made a move, slipping under 0.9900 for the first time in a month. Sell stops were just under the figure, and earlier reported bids at 0.9900 turned out to be not as thick as expected. Buyers did return however, limiting losses to 0.9892, before rebounding to near 0.9920. Next support is the November 7 low of 0.9875.