Understanding correlations is a great way for traders to form opinions on markets that they may previously not follow. The idea of a correlation is to take two seemingly different markets or assets and see how market price moves relative to each other. Today we will review using the AUDUSD currency pair to determine the direction of gold through the use of a correlation.
Let’s get started!
When someone mentions Gold, the AUDUSD should immediately come to mind as a correlating asset. These assets are positively correlated, meaning they can be seen generally moving in the same direction. First this correlation works because both assets are priced in US Dollars. The AUD/USD pair represents Aussie Dollars priced in US Dollars. While gold is XAU/USD or gold priced in US Dollars per oz. When the US dollar gains strength, both assets tend to depreciate in value
Secondly, the AUD has a high correlation to gold due to Australia’s extensive gold mining operations. As gold prices fluctuate, this increases or decreases the amount of funds transferred into AUD to make purchases of the metal. These transfers essentially change demand for the currency and can directly cause changes in the AUDUSD currency pair as well.
Learn Forex – AUD/USD & Gold (XAU/USD) Correlation
(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2.0 charts)
Trading the Correlation
The key to trading positively correlated assets, is finding a direction from one of the underlying assets before making a trading decision. If traders are seeing the AUDUSD push to lower lows, this could easily be the catalyst for a bearish bias on Gold. Conversely if gold is trending upwards, this can also be a signal of a new uptrend on the AUDUSD.
As you can see, this information is very useful to traders that have a general fundamental view of the market. If you have an opinion on Gold or the US Dollar this can be relayed into a trade idea. Often traders that are bullish on Gold choose to trade the AUDUSD instead of the metal itself. The Aussie Dollar carries a 2.50% banking rate, meaning traders can earn additional interest while executing a buy order on a positively correlated opinion of Gold. If a trader is bearish on the AUDUSD currency pair, traders can in turn sell gold to avoid accumulating interest on their trading balance.
---Written by Walker England, Trading Instructor
To contact Walker, email WEngland@FXCM.com . Follow me on Twitter at @WEnglandFX.
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