WHAT: Commerce Department Durable Goods, April
WHEN: Friday 0830 EDT (1230 GMT)
FORECASTS (pct) Reuters IFR Previous
Durables orders +1.5 +2.7 -6.9
- ex-transport. +0.5 +1.2 -2.9
- nondef. ex-aircraft +0.5 +0.8 -0.6
IFR COMMENTARY: 'Durable goods orders probably continued their
seesaw pattern in April, rising about 2.7% after sinking 6.9% in
March. That should be largely driven by a rebound in nondefense
aircraft orders, and a significantly smaller one in defense
aircraft orders. That would bring year-on-year growth up to a
modest +1.0% from -1.9%.
Normally-less-volatile ex-trans orders should be up about
1.2%, following two months of significant losses. That would
bring year-on-year growth up to just -0.4% from -2.1%.
Nondefense capital goods orders ex-aircraft, should be up
about 0.8%. This important category, a proxy for business
investment spending, has also been less than spectacular, about
flat in year-on-year terms. Our call would bring it up to +0.6%
y/y from -1.9%.
Clearly, despite the increases, the relatively soft trends
in orders growth are not particularly strong leading indicators
for the broader economy. Growth should slowly speed up in H2 as
the initial impacts of austerity wane and global growth edges
-- by Theodore Littleton of IFR Markets, a unit of Thomson
((--Reuters Economics and Markets desk, +1 212 646 6300))
Keywords: IFR PREVIEW/USA
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