WHAT: Commerce Department Durable Goods, March
WHEN: Wednesday 0830 EDT (1230 GMT)
FORECASTS (pct) Reuters IFR Previous
Durable goods -2.8 -1.6 +5.6
- Ex-transportation +0.5 +0.5 -0.7
- Nondef. Ex-aircraft +0.4 +1.8 -3.2
IFR COMMENTARY: 'Our calls are for headline durable goods orders
to be down 1.6% on the month, but ex-trans orders up 0.5%, in a
reversal of last month's pattern, which had overall orders
shooting up 5.6% but ex-trans orders down 0.7%. That would have
year-on-year growth in durables orders up 6.1% (from +3.9% in
February) and ex-trans orders up 2.6% (versus +1.4% in
February). Even with some slowly growing drag from
sequestration, ex-trans y/y growth should start to look better
in comparison with a weak spring and summer 2012.
Boeing new orders in March were not extraordinary,
suggesting about-trend growth in civilian aircraft orders, after
a surge in February. Motor vehicle orders will also probably
slip after a 3.9% bounce in February, while defense aircraft
should see a modestly offsetting increase.
Nondefense capital goods orders, a proxy for business
investment spending, look to be up around 1.8%, following a
volatile few months that on average were significantly below
-- by Theodore Littleton of IFR Markets, a unit of Thomson
((--Reuters Economics and Markets desk, +1 212 646 6300))
Keywords: IFR PREVIEW/USA
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