2013-03-13 07:08 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
Position reduction and short term flows influenced, but overall it was a quiet session. The dollar was a touch easier, with EUR dragged higher by GBP short covering, which lifted Cable from 1.4900 to 1.4950. JPY firmed up ahead of Friday's vote on BoJ nominees Kuroda, Nakaso and Iwata. PM Abe is widely expected to prevail with all three nominees for BoJ Governor and the deputy roles despite media reports of some opposition across the political spectrum, which fueled a USD-JPY move into 95.60. In Australia, March consumer confidence rose 2% to 110.50, which was the highest level since December 2010, but it was offset by a 1.5% m/m drop in Australia owner-occupied housing finance.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD traded within a tight range after Tuesday's squeeze above 1.3050. It started the session close to 1.3030 and edged up to 1.3040 as Cable rallied. Overall, there was limited appetite to build fresh positions. In the near-term, the downside is still likely to attract, but it is now in territory where good demand is noted on dips and market positioning is also overstretched.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY and the JPY crosses experienced profit taking after news emerged of opposition to the BoJ appointments ahead of Friday's official vote. However, overall the correction in JPY has been fairly modest, with Tokyo insiders still anticipating a successful outcome. USD-JPY fell back from over 96.00 to the 95.60 region, but large Japanese bids put a floor in place. A build up of offers are noted towards 96.30-40 and over 96.50, where good offers emerged on Monday.[GBP, USD]
Cable experienced short covering from 1.4900 to 1.4950, which compared with Tuesday's fresh major-trend low of 1.4829. Selling pressure is widely anticipated up to the 1.5000 region and another test under 1.4900 may come later on in the week. The market is positioning for much more aggressive BoE policy when Carney takes over the governor position from July 1st.[USD, CHF]
USD-CHF has consolidated while EUR-CHF has edged out a five-day low of 1.2317 on Tuesday, with the Swiss currency finding support amid the corrective tone in stock markets. USD-CHF has settled lower after making a six-month peak on Friday in the wake of the U.S. jobs data. Trendline support comes in at 0.9445 and the 200-day moving average at 0.9433. EUR-CHF technical support and bidding interest is expected into 1.2305-15, while selling interest is seen into 1.2350-55.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD traded a tight range overnight after it moved back near the 1.0250 area on Tuesday. Domestic names sold from the 1.0280 area on Tuesday and this should fuel light interest in the near-term. On the downside a move through 1.0250 could potentially fuel more follow through selling amid light stops, but support is also tipped at 1.0230 and 1.0220, which should reinforce the range bound trading theme.