2013-03-12 19:43 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
The dollar softened in early trade, as U.S. equity futures held their own ahead of the open. Later though, in the cash market, stocks stumbled marginally, which allowed the dollar to move slightly higher again. There was no data to drive prices, and trade was light overall. EUR-USD got a small bump up following comments from the ECB's Weidmann, who said the exchange rate is not ECB policy goal. EUR-USD peaked near 1.3075 before fading back under 1.3020. USD-JPY slipped to 95.75 from 96.25 as Wall Street faded, while cable came off its trend low near 1.4830, though ran into fresh sellers at 1.4900.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD climbed toward 1.3050 on the move over 1.3020, and after again failing to make downside progress under 1.3000 early on. Intra day weak shorts were mostly behind the move, though sellers returned initially into Monday's 1.3053 peak. Weidmann said exchange rate is not ECB policy goal, who repeated however, that "of course, changes in exchange rates influence" the ECB's overall assessment of economic conditions. The euro got a modest boost from the comments, though as risk taking eroded, EUR-USD eased under 1.3020 after peaking near 1.3075.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY touched 95.75, after topping over 96.25 in the Asian session, largely as stocks stumbled, and risk appetite took a minor hit. USD-JPY made its fourth consecutive higher high today, reaching a new major-trend peak of 96.71 before retreating under 96.00. Exporter selling was noted, while stops were triggered through 96.00. Mixed Japanese data had little impact. Japanese markets have already gone a long way in factoring in prospects of committed deflation-busting policies, which partly explains the rebound in the JPY today as weaker speculative positions were squared out.[GBP, USD]
Cable fell back under 1.4900 and made a fresh major-trend low of 1.4829 following the production data, and sterling also made a trend fresh nadir against the euro. Trendline resistance comes in at 1.4920, which would market a good near-term risk level, and in fact, cable peaked at 1.4914 in N.Y. dealings. EUR-GBP logged a fresh high to 0.8776, though headlines from broader euro selling left 0.8800 unchallenged. Initial EUR-GBP trend support comes in at 0.8715. U.K. January industrial output was -1.2% m/m versus the median for +0.2% m/m, leaving the y/y figure at -2.9% y/y after -2.1% in December. The monthly drop was the sharpest fall since last June. The picture the data paints was made worse by the fact that the ONS stated that snowy weather conditions that were seen toward the end of January had little impact.[USD, CHF]
USD-CHF has consolidated while EUR-CHF has edged out a five-day low of 1.2317, with the Swiss currency finding support amid the corrective tone in stock markets. USD-CHF has settled lower after making a six-month peak on Friday in the wake of the U.S.jobs data. Trendline support comes in at 0.9445 and the 200-day moving average at 0.9433. EUR-CHF technical support and bidding interest is expected into 1.2305-15, while selling interest is seen into 1.2350-55. The CHF had been an underperforming lately, driven by rising risk appetite in global financial markets, which the currency correlates inversely to. Last week CPI data, at -0.3% y/y, assured that the SNB will persist with its easy monetary policy and 1.2000 currency limit peg, which we expect to be affirmed at this week's policy meeting.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD moved back near session lows of 1.0250 in early trade, after reportedly having been sold from 1.0280 by domestic names. Follow through was limited however, as it appeared range trade mentality was in effect. Good bids were noted at 1.0250, which provided support through the session. Later, as stocks fizzled, the pairing managed a move back to 1.0270, though trade was light through the afternoon.