2013-03-08 12:28 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
A moderate risk-on theme ensued in global markets following an impressive Japanese Q4 GDP revision and forecast-beating China export data, a backdrop that serviced to support EUR-USD, GBP-USD and EUR-CHF. The AUD was conspicuous for not rallying, however, apparently as that market was more concerned about the weakening in China import figures, being a signal of weaker demand for Australian resource produce. The JPY weakened to fresh trend lows despite the strong domestic data. Market volumes were curtailed by the proximity of the U.S. jobs report release.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD climbed back above 1.3100 and breached above yesterday's 1.3118 peak. The move reflected the prevailing risk-on backdrop. There was also market speculation that the U.S. jobs report exceed expectations too, which is also our favoured view, and positive U.S. data leads tend to support EUR-USD via boosting global risk appetite. The less dovish than expected ECB press conference yesterday also continued to have some resonance in markets. Thursday's sharp rally had breached six-week trendline resistance to signal a general waning of the bear trend, and likely portending a consolidation period. Resistance is at 1.3155-62, the latter marking the Feb-28 high. The 20-day moving average presently comes in at 1.3202.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY climbed to a new major-trend peak of 95.71, having breached a technical resistance level at 95.50. A return to the 100.00 handle is looking viable in the near distant future as market look forward to the arrival of a new BoJ governor that is set on fixing Japan's chronic deflation problem. EUR-JPY, meanwhile, punched above 1250.00 for the first time in 11 days, and having made a solid break of its 20-day moving average looks set to move toward trend peaks at 127.72. The yen has weakened despite the healthy upward revision to Japan's Q4 GDP, to +0.2% q/q from -0.4% y/y, and consequent 2.5%-plus surge in the Nikkei stock index, but this fits the usual pattern of the Japanese currency tending to correlate inversely with risk-on leads.[GBP, USD]
Sterling was mixed, managing to rebound versus the USD again, back above 1.5000, but as EUR-GBP made fresh highs above 0.8700. The speculative segment of the market will be running a pretty large net short position in the pound, which has potential to fuel a position-squaring rebound. No importance domestic leads were seen today. Eurogroup head, Dijsselbloem, said in a speech that a "a new sterling crisis could happen again" due to the state of public finances. His remarks won't rattle the market much as participants have for some time now been talking about the potential for a sterling crisis given the Britain's ongoing tight fiscal but loose monetary policies, along with prospects for continued relatively-high inflation and anaemic GDP performance. The recent dive in sterling was dirven by such sentiment, so from a market perspective Dijsselbloem seems a little behind the curve.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF logged a three-week high of 1.2371 amid the improve risk appetite backdrop. The Swiss currency correlates inversely with risk appetite, and would see further losses should today's U.S. jobs report exceed expectations as we expect it to. EUR-CHF resistance is at 1.2388 (the Feb-13 high) and again at 1.2400 and 1.2406 (the Feb-4 peak). Trendline support is pegged at 1.2355, while a trend break would be signalled by a breach below 1.2300. Swiss February CPI came in today at -0.3% y/y, unchanged from January, and matching the widespread expectation. The figure compares to a -0.9% y/y rate that was seen in February 2012, which underscores the impact that the currency limit peg has had in curtailing deflationary price pressures. Negative inflation rates are persisting, however, a backdrop that should ensure that the SNB remains committed to loose monetary policy and the EUR-CHF peg despite signs of economic improvement in recent data.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD tripped up stops on its move under 1.0300, on its way to lows of 1.0285 after the narrower Canadian trade deficit. Support is seen at 1.0270, representing North American low on Wednesday, with more stops noted under the level. The risk backdrop remained marginally positive for the CAD, and following the lack of action from the BoJ, ECB, and BoE, USD positive policy speculation has run its course for now. USD-CAD based at 1.0285 before briefly reclaiming the 1.0300 handle later in the session.