2013-02-15 07:12 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
The dollar and yen were supported overall as the market tone remained defensive into the G20 meeting. Russia, who is hosting the meeting, said the G20 statement on FX will make no specific mention of Japan. JPY was choppy during the session on more policy rhetoric from Japanese officials, but given the pending event risk most specs favoured position reduction and this left USD-JPY heavier around 92.50. EUR-USD traded a narrow range close to 1.3350 in Asia after the fallout from yesterday's weak Q4 GDP releases. ECB's Weidmann said ECB will not cut interest rates just to weaken the EUR and it is not seriously overvalued, which triggered a boost after the European open. AUD-USD was supported by bullish technical indicators and the recent drop in EUR-AUD and GBP-AUD. NZD-USD jumped over 0.8500 after the much stronger than expected retail sales release.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD traded within the familiar 1.3300-1.3400 range. It traded a tight range close to 1.3350 in Asia after recovering from the 1.3300-10 region on Thursday. The upside was limited to the 1.3370 area until early Europe, where ECB's Weidmann ruled out an interest rate cut just to weaken the EUR, which triggered a move up to 1.3390. However, yesterday's weak Q4 GDP should still limit the upside, which is also backed by bearish daily studies amid the recent downturn. Stops are building just below 1.3300 support, while large technical levels are noted at 1.3260-65, which could be a target for intra-day accounts if there is more dollar safety into the weekend.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY traded at 92.25 lows after general JPY demand on dips as short term accounts reduced positions into today's G20 meeting in Russia. There was more Japanese policy rhetoric that supported a USD-JPY rate between 95 and 100, but it only had minimal impact. Movement into 93.00 met offshore funds and short term Japanese accounts during the Asian morning and the sell-off gathered momentum over the afternoon session. There was good support noted from Japanese importers from 92.25 and fund names have also placed bids ahead of 92.00. By the time European accounts entered the market it had recovered to 92.60, but upward momentum looks more limited.[GBP, USD]
Cable is more stable today after a sovereign name supported under 1.5500 on Thursday. Cable sentiment has been so bad though that it is struggling to clear close to market offers from 1.5530-40 and above 1.5550. EUR-GBP support also acts as a weight on the topside amid a pick up in German corporate demand on dips. However, it has been weighed in the last 24 hours by general EUR heaviness and a large real money corporate order, which is related to a long-term unhedged position.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF sees limited upside due to the recent downturn in EUR-USD, which fueled a general reduction in EUR long positioning. Real money bids into 1.2300 and below have slowed the downturn, but the outlook looks as if it will remain dependent on the eurozone outlook. Range players are likely to buy dips into 1.2280, while offers are noted from 1.2340-50.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD maintained about a 20 point range of 1.0005 and 1.0025 since Wednesday's close, with strong bidding interest still noted into the parity mark. Stops are seen underneath, while offers from 1.0070-80, have reportedly been lowered to 1.0040. The closing of the Nexen/CNOOC deal later this month continues to keep the upside in check, and selling on minor upticks remains the strategy of choice. The pairing moved back over 1.0020, after testing and failing to break under parity. Good bids were parked at the figure, and resulted in some short covering action. Narrow ranges are likely to prevail however, as sellers are seen in place from 1.0040.