2013-02-14 21:45 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
The dollar and yen rallied into the N.Y. open on the back or weak European GDP numbers, and the upcoming G20 meeting. After the G7 shenanigans earlier this week, there is more yen sensitivity in the market than usual. The N.Y. session however was very quiet, with major dollar pairings maintaining very narrow ranges. EUR-USD opened near 1.3325, its low and peaked at 1.3341. USD-JPY started at 93.30 and based at 92.98 late in the session. On the economic calendar, weekly jobless claims were lower than expected, but had little impact on the dollar. The data did improve Wall Street sentiment though, helping equities to pare their early losses. Friday's calendar reveals the Empire State index, industrial production, TIC flow data, and the Michigan sentiment survey.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD fell sharply after eurozone GDP releases were broadly weaker than expected. It fell immediately from the European open from 1.3440 through 1.3400 and saw stops triggered through 1.3350 to print lows just under 1.3320. The downturn was exacerbated by recent longs throwing in the towel, while specific flows included heavy sell-interest via EUR-GBP by a U.K. clearer and Japanese retail type names via EUR-JPY. This action had largely run its course by the time N.Y. trade got under way, as EUR-USD stuck to about a 20 point range over 1.3325, Interest was definitely lacking though the session, perhaps ahead of a long weekend in North America, and the upcoming G20 meeting.[USD, JPY]
The yen was underpinned into the G20 meeting. USD-JPY filled in bids through 93.00 and EUR-JPY fund support gave way and it moved briefly to 123.80. Bloomberg ran a draft copy of the G20 statement dated February-11, before the G7 statement on Tuesday. For currency traders the important headline is "G20 are committed to avoiding FX rate misalignments, though we've already had Russia, who is hosting the meeting, backing market determined exchange rates. G20 meetings are notoriously long on words and short on action, but after the G7 shenanigans earlier this week there is more sensitivity in the market than usual. USD-JPY is likely to see limited moves into the weekend, though the crosses will be dependent on the market risk profile in the absence of fresh official rhetoric.[GBP, USD]
A sovereign name helped Cable back over 1.5500 and fueled some European names to cover shorts. Cable sentiment has been so bad though that the move to 1.5525 fell short of session highs close to 1.5530. Two-way action has also gone through the cross. EUR-GBP was lifted by a German corporate order, but was weighed down from 0.8615 by more U.K. clearer selling. Sources think this interest could be related to long-term hedging from an unhedged real money position. Gains were brief however, and cable slipped back under 1.5500 into hte close.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF was unable to sustain higher levels as the pullback in EUR-USD weighed. This was very much the case on Wednesday when EUR-USD pulled back from 1.3500, which capped EUR-CHF over 1.2380. Real money bids between 1.2330 and 1.2300 slowed the downturn, but eventually threatened levels lower down amid pronounced EUR weakness. USD-CHF has benefited from the pick up in safety plays after weaker than expected GDP readings from German, France and Italy, which took it back over 0.9200 and buy stops were flushed out after 0.9220 gave way.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD maintained about a 20 point range of 1.0005 and 1.0025 since Wednesday's close, with strong bidding interest still noted into the parity mark. Stops are seen underneath, while offers from 1.0070-80, have reportedly been lowered to 1.0040. The closing of the Nexen/CNOOC deal later this month continues to keep the upside in check, and selling on minor upticks remains the strategy of choice. The pairing moved back over 1.0020, after testing and failing to break under parity. Good bids were parked at the figure, and resulted in some short covering action. Narrow ranges are likely to prevail however, as sellers are seen in place from 1.0040.