2013-02-14 11:21 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
EUR was the mainer mover in Europe after eurozone GDP data was broadly weaker than expected. EUR-USD lost over a big figure to trade just under 1.3320 and there were heavy flows that went through EUR-GBP, EUR-JPY and EUR-CHF as specs cut back long positions. Elsewhere, Cable continued to trade heavily after yesterday's BoE Inflation Report, which saw it breach 1.5500, but option related bids ahead of 1.5485 barriers underpinned, along with EUR-GBP's plunge. USD-JPY trod a very narrow range close to 93.50. JPY-cross weakness was offset by broad dollar gains. There was no real appetite to trade USD-JPY into the G20 and after the recent G7 rhetoric on currencies. Overnight, the BoJ left policy unchanged as-expected, which also had a muted impact.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD fell sharply after eurozone GDP releases were broadly weaker than expected. It fell immediately from the European open from 1.3440 through 1.3400 and saw stops triggered through 1.3350 to print lows just under 1.3320. The downturn was exacerbated by recent longs throwing in the towel, while specific flows included heavy sell-interest via EUR-GBP by a U.K. clearer and Japanese retail type names via EUR-JPY.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY traded in familiar ranges either side of 93.50 as Q4 GDP fell 0.4% and the BoJ left policy unchanged as-expected. Both the economic data release and the BoJ decision saw a muted reaction. This was not unexpected though, given the JPY weakness over the last several weeks and of course the pending G20 meeting, which has taken on more significance after the conflicting G7 statements this week. USD-JPY traded between 93.15 and 93.65 and then settled close to 93.50 by the Asian close. Price action was choppy, but it does look as if the topside will remain more limited now with the G20 in focus.[GBP, USD]
Cable continued to trade heavily and breached 1.5500 after Middle Eastern account pressure. Swiss name bids are keeping the pair elevated, which is apparently related to outstanding barriers at 1.5485. GBP has experienced broad based selling pressure since yesterday's BoE Inflation Report. The main takeaway was that the BoE would maintain the dovish policy stance. King also left the door open for more policy stimulus, but once again admitted there are limits to what monetary policy could achieve. Fund names have been positioning for sterling weakness since the start of the year, which has seen Cable fall from over 1.6200.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF was unable to sustain higher levels as the pullback in EUR-USD weighed. This was very much the case on Wednesday when EUR-USD pulled back from 1.3500, which capped EUR-CHF over 1.2380. Real money bids between 1.2330 and 1.2300 slowed the downturn, but eventually threatened levels lower down amid pronounced EUR weakness. USD-CHF has benefited from the pick up in safety plays after weaker than expected GDP readings from German, France and Italy, which took it back over 0.9200 and buy stops were flushed out after 0.9220 gave way.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD remained pressured overnight after it traded under 1.0050 throughout Wednesday's session. Decent bids are seen in place at 1.0000, though since the announcement that Canada's Nexen has received all necessary approvals to be taken over by China's CNOOC, the pairing has been sold into modest upticks. The deal, worth about C$15 bln, is expected to close on February 25th, and could continue to weigh on USD-CAD. A break of 1.0000 is expected to trigger sell stops, while offers have been lowered in size from the 1.0040-50 area.