2013-02-08 07:50 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
The Asian market saw consolidation set in following Thursday's large moves. EUR-USD traded heavily around 1.3400 after ECB's Draghi focused on recent EUR appreciation and the potential impact on inflation. JPY was higher on profit taking after Japan posted its biggest trade deficit since current tracking methods began 30-years ago. China trade provided a brief tonic for risk takers after exports and imports both beat expectations, which saw a trade surplus of $29.2 bln versus market expectations of $22 bln. The RBA Statement of Monetary Policy did not deviate from Tuesday, which left the door open for further easing if needed. Today's PBOC fixing was a surprise. USD-CNY was fixed 105 pips lower at 6.2793, which was the biggest drop since October 12, 2012 and fueled speculation that inflationary pressures may be a problem, though it could also be a symptom of next week's, week-long Lunar New Year.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD maintained a heavier tone close to the 1.3400 region. It did meet some supportive flows ahead of 1.3380 after good China trade data gave impetus for risk taker. However, the breakdown during Thursday's session and Draghi focus on recent EUR appreciation and CPI risks have seen the EUR take on a decidely bearish turn. It looks like selling pressure will now pick up on upticks. A move through yesterday's 1.3371 lows is expected to fuel more stop loss selling and could force a move through key support at 1.3350-55. On top, there are offers at 1.3440-50 and from 1.3470.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY was weighed on by profit taking ahead of a long weeked in Japan. Selling pressure was noted from fund names and short term accounts from 93.75 early on and it headed to the 93.20 ahead of the Asian close. Poor Japan trade data did not change the intra-day trend, which was focused on position reduction. In recent sessions weak Japan data has reinforced policy risk. It does highlight, however, that Japanese policy makers will have maintain very aggressive policy in order to turn the current trend in trade. USD-JPY support is noted into 93.00 and 92.80, while more bids are noted into 92.50.[GBP, USD]
Cable remains supported into 1.5700 by EUR-GBP losses. It fell from 0.8600 at the start of the ECB press conference on Thursday and has extended to the 0.8510 area today as EUR-USD tested levels under 1.3400. Cable consolidated since Carney's testimony to the TSC and the unchanged BoE policy outcome. After a brief squeeze from 1.5675 to 1.5770 it headed back to just under 1.5700 on Thursday. However, from a technical pespective, Cable is showing signs of stability since it corrected oversold levels following yesterday's failure to break 1.5630.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF is trading close to bids at 1.2275-80 after broad EUR weakness forced it under 1.2300 on Thursday. USD-CHF's more supportive tone on general dollar strength has enabled the cross to hold steady, but it will remain tied to the directional bias of the EUR. Bids are layered into 1.2250, while offers are noted from 1.2320-30.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD continues to trade under 1.0000, which held over the course of the North American afternoon. The downturn in the risk backdrop resulted in morning gains for USD-CAD on Thursday, with the pairing grinding its way up ahead of 0.9930 in Europe and up through offers from 0.9990 in the North American morning. Heavier offers were reported into 1.0000, and with risk appetite fairly steady, albeit at lowered levels, there was not be enough impetus to push parity today. Stops are still seen at 1.0010, though will likely remain save until Friday's Canadian employment report.