2013-02-07 07:19 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
Rangebound action is noted as market participants await today's policy decisions from the BoE and ECB, along with a testimony from incoming BoE Governor Carney. China is also due to release trade and inflation data tomorrow and this restricted interest in Asia. AUD still threatened to press lower despite the better than expected Australia jobs report, but buyers underpinned below 1.0300. JPY consolidated recent losses, which left USD-JPY just ahead of 93.50 compared with trend highs just over 94.00 during Wednesday's Asian session. NZD-USD fell from 0.8400 to 0.8350 after NZ employment dropped 1% q/q, which was much weaker than expectations for a +0.4% outturn. EUR-USD was steady throughout, with buyers keeping the downside in check into the 1.3500 region.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD eased early on, but found good support into 1.3500. The easier tone was influenced by light position adjustment ahead of today's ECB rate announcement and accompanying press conference. During Wednesday's session political uncertainty in Italy and Spain added weight and fueled a move from the 1.3580-90 area after large offers capped from 1.3600. There are expectations that ECB's Draghi could weigh remarks compared to last time round. Markets had got ahead of themselves on the eurozone outlook, which fueled a surge in EUR long positioning and Draghi may want to present a more balanced outlook.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY was supportive and edged up from 93.30 to 93.70 on Japanese demand, which boosted EUR-JPY from 126.00 over 126.80, with similar moves seen in GBP-JPY and AUD-JPY. There wasn't any reaction from the jump in Japan core machinery orders. The market has been more sensitive to weak data as it reinforces Japan policy risk. Japan PM Abe maintained that deflation could be overcome with monetary policy and defended the recent yen weakness, stating this was not the same as currency intervention. Japan Finance Minister Aso also maintained that policy was to ease deflation. Abe confirmed that all three BoJ nominees will be proposed at the same time.[GBP, USD]
Cable marked time close to 1.5650. The downside is supported ahead of large support at 1.5630. Chartists claim a Cable close below this long term trendline could result in significant losses. Further selling could dovetail Carney's testimony today. The market will want clarification on Carney's dovish sounding remarks at Davos. More specifically, he may be quizzed on a nominal GDP target, more extended policy guidance and the potential for flexible inflation targeting. We think Carney may weigh remarks, partly due to a smooth transition for the current MPC and also because King is still in charge. However, Carney should leave policy options open ahead of July 1st.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF bumped against support into 1.2300 and below in Asia, but received a fillip from early Swiss buyers up to 1.2325. Positive for risk appetite in the region was the big jump in Swiss consumer confidence as economic conditions improve in both the Swiss economy and the eurozone. The EUR-CHF upside is expected to run into supply over 1.2350. It has struggled to sustain movement into 1.2400 and above in recent sessions. USD-CHF is marking time close to 0.9100 after it topped out around 0.9150 on Wednesday. The downside should be supported by very long term outstanding barriers from 0.9000, which encouraged buyers from 0.9050 to 0.9020 in recent sessions.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD moved up to 0.9985, intra day highs, in early North America on Wednesday. The move came as oil prices and equities headed lower. Range trade has persisted however, with offers still seen in place at 1.0000. Stops remained over 1.0010 though were left untouched, while on the downside, buyers were lined up at 0.9950. USD-CAD has been testing the 0.9950 level, which has been the bottom of the range this week. Standing bids have been reported at the level all week as well, while stops should be a factor under 0.9940.