2013-01-28 20:03 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
FX trade was fairly quiet in N.Y. on Monday, and for the most part, familiar ranges held up. EUR-USD hung out between 1.3430 and 1.3480, while USD-JPY again failed to hold 91.00, and pulled back under 90.70. USD-CAD also had trouble holding 1.0100, and reversed modestly lower in afternoon dealings. The economic calendar revealed strong December durable orders, though pending home sales were soft. Equities moved on either side of flat through the session, and gave little guidance to the FX market. Tuesday's U.S. calendar is light as well, with November Case-Shiller home prices, and January consumer confidence. The FOMC meeting starts on Tuesday, and activity will likely slow some into Wednesday's policy announcement.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD flirted with Friday's 1.3479 high, though quickly ran into sellers ahead of the level. Dealers noted last March's 1.3485 peak as good resistance as well, while 1.3500 barrier option defense may keep euro bulls contained for now. Equities bumped along near flat, and did not providing much guidance. EUR-USD continued to chop around inside a well defined range, with 1.3430-80 remaining intact into the London close. Real money accounts were reportedly buying dips into 1.3430 and more orders are noted at 1.3400 and 1.3380, with longs positioning for a push over 1.3500. However, after the recent EUR strength there may be some sideways action over the next day or two.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY ran into fund demand ahead of 90.50-55., which lifted it briefly above 91.05. USD-JPY was also aided by bargain hunting in the JPY crosses. EUR-JPY's correction from overnight trend highs just shy of 123.00 barriers ran out of steam into 121.60 and it headed back to 122.60 after the N.Y. open. USD-JPY expiries at 91.00 exerted an early influence intra-day, but Thursday's plethora of strikes from 90.00 to 91.50 should fuel good price chop over the course of the week, as well as the FOMC meeting and several Japanese data releases to digest ahead of Friday's NFP release.[GBP, USD]
Cable met a persistent bid into 1.5700-10 and bounced back to 1.5740 after U.S. durable goods. Cable demand is linked to outstanding option barriers at 1.5700. London names eventually extinguished these to force 1.5697 session lows. Shorts immediately covered ahead of 1.5695 bids, while there was also option related buying and it sits just ahead of 1.5700 into the London close. N.Y. afternoon trade was thin, and sellers managed to get the upper hand again, pushing cable to lows under 1.5680.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF moved briefly over 1.2500 in early Asia, but has pulled back to 1.2455 on profit taking activity. General EUR support on dips should keep the downside limited and buyers are noted into 1.2450 and 1.2400. SNB's Jordan said that the franc is still at high levels, but expected it to weaker further.[USD, CAD]
After again failing to decisively take out the 1.0100 level, USD-CAD moved back under 1.0070 in afternoon North American trade, largely on the back of intra day position paring. Solid selling interest is noted up at the figure, where option and fund backed offers have been reported. To the downside, bids are in place from 1.0040. Traers will watch for November Canada GDP and January Ivey PMI data on Tuesday, and we look for USD-CAD to remain range bound until then.