PRAGUE, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Czech retail sales fell by 1.8

percent year-on-year in November, hurt by lower sales in the

automotive sector, statistics office data showed on Friday.

The headline figure missed analysts' forecasts for

stagnation.

Overall adjusted sales on a month-on-month basis fell 0.6

percent and by 3.5 percent year-on-year, the statistics bureau

said.

The data adds to a string of grim economic indicators,

including November industrial output, that signal a recession in

the Czech economy probably continued in the fourth quarter, and

they highlight the need for more monetary policy easing,

analysts said.

The Czech economy has been shrinking since the middle of

2011 as government austerity hit consumption.

The central bank has cut interest rates to near zero and

said it would move to weaken the crown if it needs to ease

monetary conditions further.

****************************************************************

KEY POINTS:

(change in percent) Nov Oct Nov fcast

RETAIL SALES (y/y) -1.8 2.2 0.0

* For a TABLE with November data..............

COMMENTARY:

STANISLAVA PRAVDOVA, ANALYST, DANSKE BANK:

'Retail sales again surprised well on the downside and only

confirmed that there is no appetite for spending among

consumers.

'Consumers are holding back and the same behaviour will be

seen also this year.

'Regarding the outlook for the Czech economy for the next

three years, we are not overly optimistic.

'GDP growth this year will be negligible and also in 2014

and 2015 there is a high possibility that growth will be just

around 2 percent.'

RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT

'The data disappointed - the annual headline figure is

negative despite a positive calendar effect. The weakness of the

figure is widespread across the whole spectrum of sales.

'It is of course nothing new to say that the Czech household

consumption is weak but the working-day-adjusted data for both

November and October are indicating that the last quarter of

2012 did not bring any improvement: the situation actually seems

to be worse than in the summer months of 2012.

'We have weak data both in industry and the retail segment

and weakening of the crown seen in the past days is a natural

reaction in such a situation. The crown may weaken further in

reaction to the November retail sales.'

PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT BANK, PRAGUE

'It is slightly worse than thought but the deviation is not

that big. It can mean two things: First, that households

continued to downsize spending as in previous months. The second

possibility is that they concentrated on pre-Christmas sales,

and so December will look better.

'It is difficult to judge based on this month, and it will

be better to wait for quarterly and full-year sales. There have

been some soft indications that Christmas-related sales could be

at least the same as in previous years.'

DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE

'The figures are bad across the spectrum. It proves that

recession in the Czech economy is deepening. Working-day

adjusted retails sales even fell by 3.5 percent.

'For the central bank it means that the need for further

monetary stimulus is growing, and in the case of the Czech

central bank it would be forex interventions.'

DETAILS:

- The headline, unadjusted figure includes automotive and fuel

sales.

- Seasonally-adjusted sales of cars and repairs fell a real 0.8

percent month-on-month. Year-on-year, sales of cars and repairs

dropped 5.8 percent in November. Unadjusted automotive sales

fell 3.0 percent year-on-year.

- Seasonally-adjusted sales including fuels dropped by a real

0.6 percent month-on-month. Year-on-year sales, when adjusted

for working days, fell 2.4 percent. Unadjusted sales decreased

1.3 percent.

BACKGROUND:

- December consumer inflation

- November industrial output figures

- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......

LINKS:

- For further details on November retail sales and past data,

Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical

Bureau's website:

http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-slu

- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on

- Instant Views on other Czech data

- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators

- Key data releases in central Europe

- For Czech money markets data click on

- Czech money guide

- Czech benchmark state bond prices

- Czech forward money market rates

(Reporting by Mirka Krufova and Jason Hovet)

Keywords: CZECH RETAIL/

(prague.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com)(+420 224 190 477)(Reuters Messaging: mirka.krufova.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

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