2013-01-10 19:52 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
The dollar retreated in N.Y. trade on Thursday, led by EUR-USD's rise, which came on the back of the ECB leaving rates unchanged, and indicating no further cuts were in the cards under the current economic landscape. EUR-USD crossed 1.3220 highs, after opening right around 1.3100. Cable followed the euro higher, while USD-CHF slipped to 0.9130. USD-JPY held above 88.00, except for a brief dip in the immediate aftermath of the U.S. options cut. AUD-USD approached 1.0600, while USD-CAD remained supported into 0.9850. The economic calendar revealed higher than expected weekly jobless claims, though the focus was on the ECB in morning trade. Friday's U.S. calendar includes November trade, and December import/export prices. Overall, the FX market remains lackluster, and generally, traded volumes are at low levels. Until volumes pick up, we suspect broad recent ranges will hold.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD ran up to 1.3190 highs during the course of the Draghi press conference, as the ECB largely took the prospects for rate cuts off the table. The unanimous decision to keep rates steady saw euro buyers step in quickly. Real money apparently lifted offers from 1.3160. Later, the pairing tripped stops at 1.3205-10, on its way to 1.3225 highs. Traders reported offers from 1.3220 to 1.3240, backed by option players, though with some Mideast interest noted as well. Stocks held their modest gains into the close, which kept the euro supported near the highs.[USD, JPY]
The JPY added marginally to losses in U.S. trade, taking USD-JPY over 88.30, while EUR-JPY rallied shot up to near 117.00, on the back of the strong euro. Dollar yen ranges were tight however, though it appears after the shakeout down to 86.80 earlier in the week, further upside may be in store in the coming days. The BoJ and government are set to agree on 2% inflation target according to Nikkei News, though this has been in the works for a while and didn't have an immediate material impact on USD-JPY, which held above Y88.[GBP, USD]
Cable was stable ahead of 1.6000 after it was unable to sustain levels under 1.6000 on Wednesday. It triggered stops through 1.6000, but ran into natural buyers ahead of support between 1.5990 and 1.5965. In concert with the euro move though, cable ramped up over 1.6165 in early N.Y.. An Asian reserve manager has reportedly been buying Cable on dips for the last two to three sessions, while a Middle Eastern account was also noted today. Today's move should not detract from the underlying trend, which is skewed to the downside amid a poor U.K. outlook.[USD, CHF]
USD-CHF fell to 0.9225 versus 0.9265 at the European open after sovereign interest to sell USD went through. Activity was more prominent via the EUR, especially after the ECB press conference, where the cross shot up to 1.2125 from near 1.0280. USD-CHF moved through 0.9200, triggering sell stops on its way to 0.9135 lows.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD continued to hold solid above the 0.9850 mark, where technical support, and ongoing talk of strong bids under the level puts a floor under the pairing. This said, upside remained a tough nut as well, with option and fund offers seen from 0.9880 to 0.9900. Flows have been lacking this week, and until we see volumes come back, range trade looks like the way to go.