BEIJING, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Chinese banks may have mildly quickened the pace
of lending in the last month of 2012, as Beijing maintains favourable liquidity
conditions to help the economy revive from a lacklustre third quarter, a Reuters
China's banks are expected to have lent 550 billion yuan ($88.28 billion) in
new loans last month, up from November's 522.9 bln yuan and exceeding October
levels of 505.2 billion yuan, a Reuters poll of 24 economists showed.
That would bring total bank lending to 8.3 trillion yuan in 2012, above what
sources familiar with government plans have told Reuters is the undisclosed
target of 8 trillion yuan, and much higher than 7.47 trillion yuan of news loans
extended in 2011.
China's foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, are expected to have
risen to $3.305 trillion at the end of December from $3.29 trillion at the end
Analysts expect the pile of reserves to have grown $15 billion in the final
three months of 2012, less than a $50 billion increase in the third quarter,
reflecting the impact from slowing export growth as the world economy wobbles,
as well as outflows of speculative capital.
Bank lending is a focal point in China's monetary policy as it is an
indicator of central bank intentions, as well as credit demand in the real
China's annual policy-setting conference said in mid-December that Beijing
would ensure appropriate growth in bank loans and social financing in 2013 to
cushion the economy against global headwinds.
'Under this policy environment, we believe December RMB loans have likely
increased by about 550 billion, while other types of credit have continued to
expand at a faster pace,' Tao Wang, a UBS economist, said in a note to clients.
Economists also forecast the broader measure of M2 money supply grew 14.0
percent in December from November's 13.9 percent. Annual growth in outstanding
yuan loans is seen dipping to 15.2 percent in December, from November's 15.7
China saw slower-than-expected bank loan growth in recent months, but
analysts said an uptick in total social financing was the more significant
measure, indicating that new credit is increasingly available through a wider
range of channels other than traditional bank lending.
China's total social financing aggregate, a broad measure of liquidity in
the economy that covers bank loans, trust loans, bank acceptance bills,
corporate bonds and equity financing, is on course to hit a record of 15
trillion yuan this year.
'With the government encouraging the development of alternative financing to
bank lending, including channelling more insurance assets and private saving
through the debt market, we believe that overall credit will continue to outpace
GDP in 2013,' said Wang.
China's central bank said late last month that it would use various tools to
ensure steady credit growth to support the economy while pursuing financial
reform in the face of weakness and uncertainty in the global economic
For more previews on upcoming Chinese economic data, click on
(M2, loan growth in percent change y/y; new loans in bln yuan, reserves in
FORECASTS Reserves M2 New loans Loan growth
ANZ ~ 14.0 620.0 ~
BOC International 3.320 13.5 450.0 15.5
Bank of Communications ~ 14.1 650.0 ~
BofAML ~ 13.8 500.0 15.2
CA-CIB 3.370 13.6 610.0 15.2
CDB Securities ~ 13.8 550.0 15.6
China Construction Bank 3.300 14.2 620.0 15.3
CICC ~ 13.5 550.0 ~
CITIC Securities ~ 14.2 500.0 ~
Goldman Sachs ~ 13.7 500.0 15.2
Guangdong Development Bank ~ 13.9 550.0 10.5
Haitong Securities ~ 13.7 580.0 ~
High Frequency Economics 3.310 13.2 673.0 ~
Hwabao Trust 3.300 14.0 500.0 15.1
Industrial Bank ~ 14.3 550.0 15.1
JPMorgan Chase ~ 13.2 550.0 15.1
Merchant Securities ~ 14.0 500.0 ~
Mizuho 3.300 14.0 550.0 15.5
OCBC 3.300 14.1 500.0 ~
Peking First Advisory 3.290 14.0 495.0 15.0
Shenyin & Wanguo ~ 13.7 560.6 15.2
Standard Chartered 3.330 14.0 550.0 ~
UBS ~ 14.2 550.0 15.1
Zheshang Securities 3.340 14.0 560.0 15.5
Median 3.305 14.0 550.0 15.2
High 3.370 14.3 673.0 15.6
Low 3.290 13.2 450.0 10.5
> For more stories on China's economy,
> China's economic indicator calendar and polls
> All Chinese economic data
> For stories China's November/October data
($1 = 6.2303 Chinese yuan)
(Reporting By Xiaoyi Shao and Lucy Hornby; Editing by Alex Richardson)
Keywords: CHINA ECONOMY/MONEY
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