

By Ellen Freilich
NEW YORK, Aug 2 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries prices rose on
Friday after weaker-than-expected U.S. job growth in July added
another element of uncertainty as to when the Federal Reserve
would scale back the monetary stimulus it has used to try to
foster economic growth.
Bond traders covered short positions and the 30-year
Treasury bond briefly extended its gain to a full point after
the data showed employers added 162,000 jobs in July, fewer than
economists had expected.
Still, the advance was less than dramatic.
'The payroll data was disappointing, but probably not weak
enough to change the debate about tapering,' said Thomas Simons,
money market economist at Jefferies & Co., referring to the
possibility of the Fed trimming its large-scale bond purchases.
'The market sold off significantly yesterday afternoon so
today's trade is an opportunity to square up,' he said.
Traders said supply from a $72 billion Treasury refunding
next week also restrained the rally. The Treasury will sell
three-, 10- and 30-year coupons next week.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 22/32.
Its yield eased to 2.63 percent from 2.71 percent on Thursday.
Traders said short-covering contributed to the move up.
Weekly Federal Reserve data on dealer positions showed dealers
short by about 14,000 contracts in the six-to-seven-year range
and short about 6,700 contracts in the seven-to-10-year maturity
range as of July 24.
Traders of short-term U.S. interest-rate futures boosted
bets that the Fed will wait until 2015 before raising short-term
borrowing costs. The contracts, tied to the Fed's policy rate
target, rise in price when traders see a bigger chance of a
later Fed rate hike.
The 'modest slowdown' in July job growth 'will keep alive
the debate about the immediate timing of 'tapering,'' said
Decision Economics senior economist Pierre Ellis.
The pace of hiring in July was below Reuters consensus
estimate of 184,000. The jobless rate fell to 7.4 percent as the
labor market participation rate edged down to 63.4 percent from
63.5 percent in June.
The market rallied on the view that the softer-than-expected
employment report could make the U.S. central bank more cautious
about drawing down its huge economic stimulus program.
But Credit Suisse economist Jay Feldman said the employment
report did not necessarily change the probability of a September
reduction in Fed bond purchases. However, he and others said the
fuzzy signal sent by the payrolls data on that issue put 'a
greater premium' on the next round of numbers.
'The data from here until the September FOMC meeting will be
very important as we are roughly 50/50 whether or not tapering
begins in September, with it very much being a data-dependent
call,' said Eric Stein, co-director of global income at Eaton
Vance Investment Managers in Boston.
The tapering debate will remain at center stage as the bond
market goes 'sideways' from here, said Kevin Giddis, senior
managing director and head of fixed income at Raymond James.
'Investors will play it pretty close to the vest until some real
action occurs.'
Separately, the CME Group said it paused trading in
some Treasuries futures for five seconds on Friday before the
highly anticipated U.S. jobs report for July.
CME spokesman Michael Shore said the firm had 'stop logic
events' in the 10- and 30-year Treasuries futures contracts at
8:29:57 a.m. EDT, three seconds before the employment report was
released.
About 173,000 10-year Treasury contracts traded in the
minute before the jobs report came out, with several large
trades in the seconds before the halts.
The CME's halts generally occur after a number of trades
come in that would cause the contract in question to trade
outside a certain defined range.
LOSING STREAK
Treasuries posted a loss for a third month in a row in July,
falling 0.11 percent, according to a total return index compiled
by Barclays. July's decline was less than the heavy losses
suffered in May and June.
Still, the Barclays Treasuries index fell 2.9 percent during
the three-month span, the most since April-June 2004.
The broader U.S. bond market fared better, earning a 0.14
percent return in July, according to Barclays' Aggregate bond
index. It was still down 2.31 percent so far this year.
(Additional reporting by Karen Brettell in New York and Ann
Saphir in Chicago; Editing by Dan Grebler)
((ellen.freilich@thomsonreuters.com)(+1-646-223-6309)(Reuters
Messaging:
ellen.freilich.thomsonreuters.com@thomsonreuters.net))
Keywords: MARKETS USA BONDS/
(--------------------- MARKET SNAPSHOT AT 1150 EDT (1550 GMT) -------------------- Sept T-Bond 133-13/32 (+1-12/32) Sept 10-Year note 126-10/32 (+30/32) Change vs Current Nyk yield Three-month bills 0.035 (-0.010) 0.035 Six-month bills 0.075 ( unch) 0.076 Two-year note 99-28/32 (+01/32) 0.313 Five-year note 99-30/32 (+16/32) 1.388 10-year note 92-15/32 (+22/32) 2.628 30-year bond 85-00/32 (+23/32) 3.711 )
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