

By Jason Lange
WASHINGTON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - U.S. employers slowed their
pace of hiring in July but the jobless rate fell anyway, a pair
of mixed signals that could make the U.S. Federal Reserve more
cautious about drawing down its huge economic stimulus program.
The number of jobs outside the farming sector increased by
162,000 last month, the smallest gain in four months and below
analysts' expectations, Labor Department data showed on Friday.
The lackluster reading reinforces the view that the job
market is only inching toward recovery from the 2007-09
recession, with the broader economy stuck in low gear.
'We're sort of grinding along here,' said Gordon Charlop,
managing director at Rosenblatt Securities in New York.
At the same time, gains in employment were enough to push
the jobless rate down to 7.4 percent, its lowest level since
December 2008.
However, the report bore many details that cast the jobless
rate's decline in a poor light, and raised doubts over whether
the economy has improved enough for the Fed to begin reducing
bond purchases at its next meeting in September.
For one, part of the drop in the jobless rate was due to a
decline in the size of the U.S. workforce, which only includes
people who have jobs or are looking for work. The workforce can
shrink when more workers retire or go to school, but it also
contracts when people give up the job hunt.
Also robbing some of the report's luster, Americans on
average worked shorter work weeks in July, while hourly wages
fell. That bodes poorly for future consumer spending, the engine
of the U.S. economy. The government also said 26,000 fewer jobs
were created in May and June than previously estimated.
The darker side of the report gave direction to Wall Street.
Yields on U.S. government debt fell sharply, suggesting
investors were less confident the Fed could soon begin easing
its bond purchases, which are aimed at spurring employment. U.S.
stocks also slipped.
'Look for some soul searching by those who thought and acted
as if reducing long-term asset purchases (by the Fed) next month
was a done deal,' said Marc Chandler, a currency strategist at
Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.
The U.S. central bank currently buys $85 billion a month in
bonds to keep borrowing costs low, and the stimulus program has
helped the country's beleaguered housing market and boosted car
sales.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the U.S. central
bank would likely reduce the level of monthly purchases by the
end of the year, and end them by mid-2014. The Fed's
policymaking committee wrapped up a two-day meeting on Wednesday
without any change to the program.
STRUCTURAL CONCERNS
Other data on Friday showed a slight gathering of
inflationary pressure, with the 12-month reading of the Commerce
Department's gauge of core inflation rising to 1.2 percent in
June from 1.1 percent a month earlier. That could allay some
concerns at the Fed that low inflation poses a risk to the
economy.
Some analysts noted that while the labor market appears far
from healthy, July still marked another month of slow-but-steady
improvement.
'While July itself was a bit disappointing, the Fed will be
looking at the cumulative improvement,' said Paul Ashworth, an
economist at Capital Economics in Toronto. The Fed was still on
track to trim its stimulus efforts in September, he said.
Beyond the report's implications for policy, a deeper
question is whether the pace of job creation can be sustained
given a long stretch of weak economic growth.
Gross domestic product, a measure of the nation's economic
output, grew at a mere 1.4 percent annual rate in the first half
of the year, down from 2.5 percent in the same period of 2012.
Most economists expect GDP will accelerate in the second
half of this year, which would make it more plausible for the
current hiring trend to continue.
But the fact that the jobless rate has fallen steadily
despite weak output might point to a frightening possibility:
perhaps the U.S. economy's growth potential has fallen.
This would mean less output is needed to create jobs, but
that incomes would grow at a slower pace over the long run. The
prospect of such a structural shift worries economists and
investors.
Friday's report could fan those concerns. The average work
week declined to 34.4 hours in July, while average hourly
earnings slipped 0.1 percent.
The report also showed 5.7 percent of Americans who had jobs
in July could not get enough hours to qualify as full-time
workers, the same percentage as in June.
While the unemployment rate has fallen by eight tenths of a
point over the last year, the share of part-time workers who
want more hours has barely dropped.
Also, the number of long-term unemployed, while falling,
remains historically high. Bernanke has warned this situation
could deal lasting damage to the economy's growth potential.
That is because people out of work for extended periods
might never work again. In July, 4.25 million Americans had been
unemployed for at least six months.
'The labor market remains stuck in quicksand,' said Todd
Schoenberger, managing partner at LandColt Capital in New York.
(Reporting by Jason Lange; Additional reporting by Lucia
Mutikani in Washington and Alison Griswold and Ryan Vlastelica
in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
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