2013-04-15 06:57 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
The dollar was mostly lower in largely uninspired N.Y. dealings on Friday. EUR-USD rose to just over 1.3100 after basing under 1.3040, while USD-JPY eased under 98.75 lows from 99.40. USD-CAD gained some ground on the back of softer U.S. data, and lowered risk taking levels, while sterling and CHF perked up. U.S. retail sales missed forecasts, while PPI slipped more than expected. Wall Street fretted about the sagging consumer, and the dollar overall, was not helped by the softening outlook. Focus for Asian participants will come directly from China data releases, which includes Q1 GDP.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD turned choppy. After extending to 1.3037 lows, after the U.S. data it bounced back toward 1.3100. The decline in U.S. yields probably didn't helped the dollar, but it did look as if options were at play with larger than average strikes due to roll off at 1.3050 and 1.3100. Stocks drove things from there, but a EUR break of range is looking less likely after it failed to sustain levels over 1.3125 during the European morning and also left the 1.3000 zone intact on the post-data dip.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY steadied in front of 99.00 in early N.Y. trade, after the move to 98.85 during the European morning. There were some speculative types that bought the dip, no doubt in anticipation topside moves, which has been the prevailing theme on pullbacks this week. Momentum was restricted into the options cut, where large 99.00 strikes expired, though there are maturities all the way up to 100.00. The pairing slipped following the softer retail sales and confidence day, moving briefly under 98.75.[GBP, USD]
Cable posted modest losses after it failed to sustain a move over 1.5400 in overnight trade. European names sold in front of 1.5400 early on, while stale longs also reduced positions amid an overhang of good offers ahead of good resistance from 1.5425 to 1.5450. The correction extended into the 1.5355 region, where the first line of natural support put a floor in place. U.K. construction output was mildly supportive after it rebounded 5.5% m/m in February and was revised up to -4.8% in January from -6.3% previously, leaving it down 7% on the year. The number does not changing the big picture view, with the correction anticipated after January's weather effected slump.[USD, CHF]
USD-CHF held steady as support from late February at 0.9270-80 put a floor in place on Thursday. Light dollar repositioning has fueled a move just over 0.9330. However, the underlying tone is still skewed to a potential downside test, which should fuel offers from 0.9340-50. Ahead of today's U.S. releases movement is likely to be contained and appetite to test the downside could be limited if risk appetite is compromised into the weekend.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD continued to move modestly higher in North America dealings on Friday, peaking at 1.0145 on the back of weaker risk taking levels, and softer U.S. data. The pairing ran into offers from 1.0140, and a break over 1.0150 could see 1.0170 tested, where more sellers are noted. Afternoon dealings were sideways into the weekend however, and a break will have to wait until next week.