2013-02-18 13:58 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
ECB Draghi injected some EUR interest, but markets remained quiet overall, with the U.S. and Canada both closed for holidays on Monday. Overall, Draghi comments were in line with his recent post-ECB press conference. He acknowledged that the eurozone was in better shape this year, but said considerable effort was still needed to emerge from the crisis. Draghi reiterated that the exchange rate is not a policy target, but it is important for growth and price stability. There were inflation risks related to weak economic activity and euro appreciation, said Draghi, which fueled a EUR-USD move from 1.3360 to just below 1.3335, but intra-day lows around 1.3320 held. Other moves included, Cable's steadier tone around 1.5475 versus trend lows around 1.5440, USD-JPY held tight ranges close to 94.00 and AUD was stable above 1.0300 after support held at 1.0275.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD traded close to 1.3350 option expiries after it failed to make progress in either direction. It bottomed out ahead of 1.3320 after the European open amid supranational account bids, while an Asian sovereign had a good interest and a large Asian fund buy order went through EUR-JPY. EUR-USD jumped from 1.3340 to reach 1.3380 highs, where a Dutch name and a U.S account kept the topside in check on behalf of fund names. Since EUR-USD broke down after the ECB press conference any upticks have been used as selling opportunities. On the downside, the 1.3300 area has seen increased order flow, while lower down the 1.3260-65 area is still key for the long-term uptrend.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY consolidated overnight gains, leaving it just shy of 94.00. It firmed up from 93.50 in early Asia after the G20 statement did not specifically direct criticism at Japan. Overall, most comments from various officials on the weekend were happy with the current Japanese policy stance as long as it was not aimed at directly devaluing its currencies. There was broad agreement that a strong Japan was good for global growth. JPY shorts got added traction after PM Abe said it could still change BoJ law if BoJ policies were not effective in getting CPI to the 2% target. USD-JPY broke 94.00 and extended to just over 94.20 in Asia, but in Europe it traded extremely tight ranges close to 94.00 throughout. It made a brief attempt to sustain a move over 94.10 on EUR-JPY demand, but edged back towards 93.90 amid outstanding 94.00 option expiries.[GBP, USD]
Cable hit new trend lows after 1.5450 barriers were extinguished after the London open. The move lower coincided with reports that fund managers have shunned the pound after CFTC data revealed GBP shorts rose to eight month highs of 16,776 on the Friday release. Sterling bears were emboldened by comments from BoE's Weale, who said it may need to weaken further in order to rebalance Britain's economy. This would be the most natural means of resolving the problem, said Weale in a speech delivered on Saturday. The Cable downside slowed intra-day due to good bids from 1.5430 to 1.5400, where another round of barriers are noted, along with talk of Middle Eastern demand, which briefly took it back over 1.5500 before another round of supply went through.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF is on a supportive footing after it firmed up from 1.2315 to 1.2340 during the Asian session. USD-CHF led the move higher in the cross, but the lack of bounce in EUR-USD threatens to weigh on EUR-CHF. Selling pressure was noted on upticks after offers from 1.2340-50 held and it trades around 1.2320 in quiet trade. Underneath 1.2300 there are bids noted from 1.2290 to the 1.2270 area. USD-CHF is supportive and could see the upside gain momentum if offers give way from 0.9270. Like recent sessions EUR-USD will determine broader directional bias. However, the pick up in the dollar over the last week has seen sovereign names take advantage and selling pressure has increased on on upticks.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD is holding steady around 1.0070 after it spiked up on Friday after weaker Canadian manufacturing data. Overall, USD-CAD is still inside the familiar trading range, with, with good support still seen at parity. On the other side of the ledger, offers are noted up to 1.0100, which are protecting buy stops higher up.