2013-02-18 07:17 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
JPY weakened after the G20 meeting, which made no specific mention of Japan, though did warn again competitive devaluation of currencies, which was largely in line with expectations. Japan PM Abe reiterated ultra-easy policy until the 2% inflation target is reached and said it could revise BoJ law if the Bank is not effective. USD-JPY moved over 94.00, but other currencies continued to traded inside last week's ranges. EUR-USD remained close to 1.3350, Cable traded under 1.5500 and AUD-USD moved into 1.0275. The latest IMM data revealed a reduction in JPY shorts, but EUR saw more long positions despite the recent downturn. Movement may be quieter than usual today due to holidays in the U.S. and Canada.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD was influenced early on by USD-JPY flows, which forced it down to the 1.3330 region. However, appetite for EUR-JPY provided a modicum of support, along with good bids from 1.3320 to 1.3300. It headed back over 1.3340 by the time the European session got underway. However, the lack of upward momentum in recent sessions should leave risk on the downside.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY firmed up from 93.50 in early Asia after the G20 statement did not specifically direct criticism at Japan. Overall, most comments from various officials on the weekend were happy with the current Japanese policy stance as long as it was not aimed at directly devaluing its currencies. There was broad agreement that a strong Japan was good for global growth. JPY shorts got added traction after PM Abe said it could still change BoJ law if BoJ policies were not effective in getting CPI to the 2% target. USD-JPY broke 94.00 and extended to just over 94.20, while EUR-JPY rallied out of 125.00 towards the 125.70 area.[GBP, USD]
Cable continues to trade on the heavy side after Friday's plunge to new trend lows just ahead of 1.5460. Option barrier support and corporate hedging have underpinned. However, after last week's deep losses risk is skewed to the downside. Offers are noted from the 1.5530 region and increase in size over 1.5550 as longer-term accounts target an eventual push on 1.5250.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF is on a supportive footing after it firmed up from 1.2315 to 1.2340 during the Asian session. USD-CHF has led the move higher in the cross, but the lack of bounce in EUR-USD threatens to weigh. The lack of upside in EUR-USD and the crosses has encouraged selling pressure on upticks and EUR-CHF is likely to see shorts add to positions ahead of 1.2350. Underneath 1.2300 there are bids noted from 1.2290 to the 1.2270 area.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD is holding steady around 1.0070 after it spiked up on Friday after weaker Canadian manufacturing data. Overall, USD-CAD is still inside the familiar trading range, with, with good support still seen at parity. On the other side of the ledger, offers are noted up to 1.0100, which are protecting buy stops higher up.