WHAT: New York Fed. Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Feb

WHEN: Friday 0830 EST (1330 GMT)

FORECASTS Reuters IFR Previous

Headline index -2.00 -5.00 -7.78

IFR COMMENTARY: 'IFR sees slight improvement in the New York

Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey in February, with the

headline index rising only from -7.78 to -5.00. That would be

the seventh month in a row that the business conditions index

has been in the negative single digits, which would be

remarkable consistency for one of the regional manufacturing

surveys. Unfortunately, that consistency implies persistent

contraction.

We expect that manufacturing will start to see positive

numbers again in coming months as fiscal uncertainty gets

cleared up and Europe begins to turn around. The latter should

be of particular benefit to the Northeastern Fed Districts.

Forward-looking indicators were weak in the Empire State's

January report. The new orders index read -7.18, while unfilled

orders continued to contract, falling to -7.53. Six month ahead

expectations rose from +17.95 to +22.41, best since September,

though that was still a precipitous fall from +51.29 a year

before.'

WHAT: Federal Reserve Bank, Industrial Production, Jan

WHEN: Friday 0915 EST (1415 GMT)

FORECASTS (PCT) Reuters IFR Previous

Industrial Production +0.2 -0.1 +0.3

Capacity Use rate 78.9 78.6 78.8

IFR COMMENTARY: 'Industrial production probably retreated

slightly in January, with our call for a 0.1% slip. That follows

gains of 1.0% in November and 0.3% in December, which were

boosted by gains in auto assemblies (up 6.5% and 2.2% in those

months respectively). That would send capacity utilization back

down from 78.8% to about 78.6%, assuming little revision, while

year-on-year IP growth would dip from +2.2% to +1.5%, its lowest

since February 2010.

Based in part on the hours worked data from the January

employment report, we look for a sizable decline in mining and

natural resources output, while the manufacturing sector holds

about steady. January was a mild month weather-wise, but not

quite as much so as December, and we look for a modest gain in

utility output. That would leave factory output up just 1.3%,

with economic uncertainty and weak export markets having made

this a long year for manufacturers.'

WHAT: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, Prel. Feb

WHEN: Friday 0955 EST (1455 GMT)

FORECASTS Reuters IFR Previous

Index 74.8 75.0 73.8

IFR COMMENTARY: 'The Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan

Survey of Consumers should see some further recovery in early

February, rising from 73.8 to about 75.0 as consumers continue

adapting in the wake of sticker shock from the end of the

payroll tax cut. The index should remain well below its November

peak of 82.7, however. We look for moderate gains of about

similar magnitude in both the current conditions and

expectations indices.

The remaining fiscal battles, over the sequester, a

continuing resolution and/or budget, and (again) the debt limit

seem not to have yet seized the imagination of the popular press

as much as the drama of the end-of-year fiscal cliff. Meanwhile,

stocks have stayed buoyant, and gas prices have begun

rebounding, but not dramatically by seasonal standards.'

-- by Theodore Littleton of IFR Markets, a unit of Thomson

Reuters.

((--Reuters Economics and Markets desk, +1 212 646 6300))

Keywords: IFR PREVIEW/USA

(Washington newsroom, 202 898 8318)

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