BEIJING, Feb 5 (Reuters) - China's January export growth was

likely its strongest in 11 months, though a 17 percent

year-on-year surge forecast in a Reuters poll may owe as much to

trade cycles and Lunar New Year holiday base effects as a

recovery in foreign demand.

The median forecast of 16 economists polled by Reuters would

put export growth at its highest since February 2012 and be in

sharp contrast to January 2012's 0.5 percent annual fall in

exports that signalled the start of China's most volatile year

for trade since the global financial crisis.

A similar effect is anticipated in import data when trade

figures are released - scheduled for Feb. 8 - undermining

confidence that a 23.3 percent median forecast for the

year-on-year pick-up in goods ordered by China is indicative of

either a sustainable jump domestic demand or a restocking of

inventories.

'We estimate that export and import growth may have jumped

to 17.3 percent and 22.8 percent in January due to a low base in

2012. As a result, we may see a trade surplus of $25.3 billion.

Year-on-year trade growth may stagnate or even turn negative in

February with a sizeable deficit,' analysts at Citi said in a

note to clients.

The view from Citi highlights the volatility inherent in the

data at this time of year, when Lunar New Year holidays in

either January or February badly skew reported numbers. Many

factories shut for at least a week during the holidays and often

longer.

Analysts at UBS have an above consensus forecast for January

trade growth of 19 percent and a trade surplus call of $40.8

billion - the highest among 15 responses to the trade balance

question that delivered a median expectation of $22.0 billion.

But UBS believes the strength of the January numbers likely

overstates the strength of the recovery in China, which suffered

its slowest full year of growth in 2012 for 13 years at 7.8

percent.

'We think the timing of the Chinese New Year and last year's

base affects all of the readings and the underlying momentum is

likely much less strong,' UBS said in a client note.

A Reuters poll last month showed that China's economic

growth is likely to edge up to 8.1 percent in 2013.

The latest surveys of purchasing managers in China's

manufacturing and services sectors both indicate that the

world's second-largest economy is on a modest recovery track.

The trade sector is a key component of the Chinese growth

engine, with export-oriented factories, foreign funded firms and

joint ventures supporting an estimated 200 million jobs.

(Exports, imports in percentage change y/y; balance in $bln)

Exports Imports Balance

Bank of Communications (Shanghai) 16.7 16.6 32.0

Barclays 16.0 20.0 -

Bank of America/Merrill Lynch 26.5 24.2 37.3

CDB Securities (Beijing) 6.7 23.3 8.5

Changjiang Securities 14.5 23.2 21.0

China Construction Bank (Beijing) 20.0 22.3 30.0

Citi 17.3 22.8 25.3

CITIC Securities 9.5 31.5 26.0

Deutsche Bank 18.0 24.0 19.6

Hwabao Trust 20.0 30.0 20.0

Industrial Bank 18.5 30.0 18.0

Mizuho Securities 26.7 29.7 30.1

Peking First Advisory 14.9 25.0 20.3

Shanghai Securities 13.4 20.6 22.0

Shenyin & Wanguo 8.1 16.1 19.6

UBS 19.0 12.0 40.8

--------------------------------------------------------

Median 17.0 23.3 22.0

Highest 26.7 31.5 40.8

Lowest 6.7 12.0 8.5

Prior 14.1 6.0 31.6

> For more stories on China's economy,

> China's economic indicator calendar and polls

> All Chinese economic data

(Reporting by China Economics Team; Writing by Nick Edwards;

Editing by Kim Coghill)

Keywords: CHINA ECONOMY/TRADE

(nick.edwards@thomsonreuters.com)(+86 10 6627 1270)(Reuters Messaging: nick.edwards.reuters.com@reuters.net)

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