WHAT: Commerce Dept. Durable Goods Orders, December

WHEN: Monday 0830 EST (1330 GMT)

FORECASTS (pct) Reuters IFR Previous

Durable goods +1.8 +1.3 +0.8

-Ex-transport. +0.7 +0.3 +1.6

Nondef. ex-aircraft -0.2 +0.5 +2.6

IFR COMMENTARY: 'A boost in transportation orders should lift December headline

durable goods orders up by about 1.3%, a fourth consecutive month of gains to

finish a lackluster year. Excluding the volatile transportation category, orders

should be up a more modest 0.3% after relatively strong gains over the prior

three months, though that only gets them back up to about where they started the

year. Manufacturer surveys continued to report only weak growth in orders, and

it's unlikely that manufacturers were seeing a flood of new orders just ahead of

the initial fiscal cliff deadline.

'Transportation looks to have been an exception, with apparent ongoing

strength in demand for civilian aircraft and passenger autos, in part driven by

the November-December spike in auto sales resulting from replacement of

Sandy-damaged vehicles.

'Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a proxy for business

investment spending, should be up just around 0.5%. Those orders gained a solid

3.0% in October and 2.6% in November, probably an unsustainable pace, with the

y/y growth rate up to +1.1% last month. That was the first positive y/y rate

since May.'

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WHAT: National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales, December

WHEN: Monday 1000 EST (1500 GMT)

FORECASTS (pct) Reuters IFR Previous

Pending sales +0.3 -2.0 +1.7

IFR COMMENTARY: 'The NAR's Pending Home Sales Index likely retreated in

December, by about 2.0%. That marks only a partial reversion from the strong

gains of (October) +5.0% and (November) +1.7%. Other than those two months, our

call would keep the PHSI at its highest level since April 2010, when sales were

juiced by an expiring homebuyer tax credit.

'Mortgage purchase applications shrank in December, in spite of continually

sinking mortgage rates. With the fiscal cliff clearly weighing on consumer

confidence measures, it's unlikely that the month was seen as a propitious time

for embarking on the major commitment of purchasing a home. Still, investor

purchases likely continued apace, if not picking up some of the slack, which

should buoy existing home sales.'

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(Compiled by Theodore Littleton of IFR Markets, a unit of Thomson Reuters)

Keywords: IFR PREVIEW/USA

(Reuters Economics and Markets Desk, +1-212-646-6300; Washington Newsroom, +1-202-898-8318)

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