2013-01-15 21:21 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
FX trade was very quiet in N.Y. on Tuesday, with familiar ranges again holding up. The U.S. economic releases has marginal market impact, as PPI came in cooler than forecast, retail sales beat expectations, and the N.Y. Fed index fizzled. Equities started lower, but managed to pull back to near flat through the afternoon. The greenback softened marginally as a result, though there was no follow through, and dealers reported very light speculative interest. Wednesday's calendar features CPI, TIC flows, and industrial production, but we continue to look for a stagnant FX market for the time being.[EUR, USD]
Early EUR-USD losses were stemmed by bids into the 1.3300 level. The pairing based near 1.3310 before moving back over 1.3350. With Wall Street opening under water though, upside was limited. Dealers reported light speculative interest in N.Y. trade, with flows largely coming from fund and option accounts. Late in the session, EUR-USD took a dive to 1.3265, with stops a factor in both EUR-USD and USD-CHF. Dollar-Swiss popped to 0.9330 highs, with buyers seen on the move over 0.9305. This reportedly prompted dollar buying through the more liquid euro pairing due to lack of CHF liquidity. EUR-USD stops were triggered under 1.3300, adding to the USD's move higher.[USD, JPY]
Fresh USD-JPY longs were established after 88.20 held. The subsequent rebound extended just over 88.90 until supply related to the JPY crosses capped further gains. Stale dollar longs out of the U.S. that also missed the earlier drop were also cutting back positions. However, USD-JPY bias is still with the topside due to Japanese policy risk into next week's BoJ meeting, but it may experience more broadly balanced moves from here as long standing 90.00 option structures provide the market with dollar supply due to gamma hedging. Offers are layered at 89.10, 89.30 and above 89.50. The BoJ will commit to 2% inflation target said Jiji News This was not especially informative since the rumor of such action has been in the markets a while, USD-JPY was spirited back above 88.70 briefly from the 88.40 area before drifting back a tad.[GBP, USD]
Cable marks time under 1.6100 after a mild reaction to the as-expected U.K. CPI release. GBP action is broadly balanced at current levels and ranges remain relatively narrow. The GBP upside was weighed on Monday amid short term selling pressure after a good offer from Middle Eastern account capped at 1.6170 on Friday, which encouraged a build up of fresh short positioning. However, movement into 1.6050 and below is still limited due to residual reserve management flows and natural hedging activity that is anticipated into 1.6000 and below. Cable could also benefit if EUR-GBP corrected some of its recent gains. Currently, it is trading ahead of 0.8300 after it met offers just ahead of 0.8330. Buyers of the cross yesterday's included real money and more than one sovereign name.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF ran into buyers at 1.2300 after it pulled back from Asian highs of 1.2385. The CHF sell off in Asia was exacerbated by a large CHF-JPY sell order, no doubt fueled after fast money lifted EUR-CHF from 1.2260 to 1.2340 during the N.Y. afternoon. Both UBS and Citi are two more banks that have added to the wave of bullish forecasts that have gone through since last Thursday. UBS backs up this view after increased Swiss investor demand for foreign assets since late last year. Longs targeted 1.2400 barriers in N.Y., taking the cross to 1.2413 highs. The recent decision by Swiss banks to charge CHF deposits may aid the upturn, but more importantly, progress in the eurozone, which was the major reason for capital flight into Switzerland.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD remained stuck in place in North American trade on Tuesday, with 0.9830-65 defining the trading range overnight. There was no Canadian data, though U.S. releases had little impact on price action either. After peaking early on in the session, the pairing eased back under 0.9840, where it plied a 15 point range through the afternoon.