MANILA, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Philippine exports in November
rose 5.5 percent from a year earlier, the weakest rate in three
months, the statistics office said on Thursday.
Electronics and semiconductor shipments, which dominate
exports, rose 13.3 percent from a year ago.
The latest data brought exports in the 11 months to November
to $48.0 billion, up 7 percent from a year ago.
Nov 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2011
Exports $3.55 bln $4.41 bln $3.37 bln
yr/yr change (pct) 5.5 6.1 -18.8
mth/mth change (pct) -19.4 -7.9 -19.0
Electronics $1.73 bln $1.90 bln $1.53 bln
yr/yr change (pct) 13.3 0.3 -34.4
mth/mth change (pct) -8.8 3.8 -19.3
NOTE: Some numbers for previous months have been revised.
- Electronics made up 48.8 percent of November export
revenues, with woodcrafts and furniture as the second-biggest
export item, comprising 7.6 percent of the total.
- Exports to Japan, the country's top export destination in
November, were up 2.5 percent from a year earlier.
- Exports to the United States, the second-biggest market,
dropped 8.6 percent from a year earlier.
- Shipments to Hong Kong, the third-biggest market, rose
58.2 percent from a year ago.
- Exports to Eastern Asia -- the top export destination by
economic bloc, accounting for 52.3 percent of total shipments --
rose 6.5 percent from a year earlier. Southeast Asia and the
European Union were the second and third biggest economic blocs.
EUBEN PARACUELLES, ECONOMIST, NOMURA, SINGAPORE:
'This is clearly a disappointing number. We were looking for
'Looking at the breakdown, it seems like the agriculture
sector was the key drag, and that offset the improvement in the
electronics sector. I think going forward, the export outlook
will remain relatively volatile. The bad weather in December
will probably exacerbate the weakness in agriculture exports.
For electronics, we know that the global economy is still on a
down cycle. The base effects will become much more unfavourable
in the next two to three months. Combining these two, we will
probably see even weaker export growth numbers in the next
quarter or so.'
'This year, export growth will still be relatively modest. A
pick-up will depend a lot on where the electronic cycle will be
and the resolution to some of these issues -- European crisis,
fiscal cliff. There will be some headwinds in these major
markets which makes it very hard to be optimistic in terms of
what the overall export growth numbers will be for the
Philippines this year.'
RADHIKA RAO, ECONOMIST, FORECAST PTE, SINGAPORE:
'November exports rose 5.5 percent year-on-year, way below
bullish market and our estimates and disregarding low base
effects. In nominal terms, receipts at $3.6 billion were the
weakest since Dec 2011, signalling that the non-electronic
manufacturers' have been unable to offset the weakness in the
core export segments.'
'Sharp peso appreciation and underwhelming holiday demand
might have also dampened external sector performance in the
'For now, we expect shipments to remain lacklustre into
2013, with overall growth still driven by the domestic-led
factors. For the central bank, attention is squarely on the
currency, capital inflows and potential price risks. Today's
sub-consensus print is unlikely to be a catalyst for any action
on the rate front.'
JEFF NG, ECONOMIST, STANDARD CHARTERED BANK, SINGAPORE:
'This may be a one-off but November export growth
underperformed. The result implies that export growth will hover
around 7 percent the whole year rather than the 8 percent I
expected. I still expect December export growth to be positive
and drive GDP growth in Q4. However, headwinds are beginning to
form for exports growth heading into 2013.'
- The peso was quoted at 40.78 per U.S.
dollar in early deals, flat from Wednesday's close.
- The stock market was not yet open.
- The central bank lowered its 2012 exports and imports
growth forecast to 8 percent and 7 percent respectively in
November, from previous estimates of 10 percent and 12 percent.
- The industry group Semiconductors and Electronics
Industries in the Philippines Inc expects exports of the sector
will post no growth in 2012 due to sluggish demand, but recover
this year and grow 5 percent to 6 percent.
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco has
said the central bank will likely keep interest rates low this
year and growth should remain on a solid footing, aided by
strong domestic consumption and higher government spending.
- The Philippine economy grew 7.1 percent in July-September
from a year earlier and 1.3 percent from the previous quarter as
strong domestic consumption helped offset weak global demand for
the country's exports.
- The Southeast Asian country provides about 10 percent of
the world's semiconductor manufacturing services, including for
mobile phone chips and micro processors. Semiconductors account
for about three-fifths of exports.
- National Statistics Office website http://www.census.gov.ph
(Reporting by Erik Dela Cruz and Karen Lema; Editing by John
Keywords: PHILIPPINES ECONOMY/EXPORTS
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