MANILA, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Philippine exports in November

rose 5.5 percent from a year earlier, the weakest rate in three

months, the statistics office said on Thursday.

Electronics and semiconductor shipments, which dominate

exports, rose 13.3 percent from a year ago.

The latest data brought exports in the 11 months to November

to $48.0 billion, up 7 percent from a year ago.

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KEY POINTS

Nov 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2011

Exports $3.55 bln $4.41 bln $3.37 bln

yr/yr change (pct) 5.5 6.1 -18.8

mth/mth change (pct) -19.4 -7.9 -19.0

Electronics $1.73 bln $1.90 bln $1.53 bln

yr/yr change (pct) 13.3 0.3 -34.4

mth/mth change (pct) -8.8 3.8 -19.3

NOTE: Some numbers for previous months have been revised.

- Electronics made up 48.8 percent of November export

revenues, with woodcrafts and furniture as the second-biggest

export item, comprising 7.6 percent of the total.

- Exports to Japan, the country's top export destination in

November, were up 2.5 percent from a year earlier.

- Exports to the United States, the second-biggest market,

dropped 8.6 percent from a year earlier.

- Shipments to Hong Kong, the third-biggest market, rose

58.2 percent from a year ago.

- Exports to Eastern Asia -- the top export destination by

economic bloc, accounting for 52.3 percent of total shipments --

rose 6.5 percent from a year earlier. Southeast Asia and the

European Union were the second and third biggest economic blocs.

COMMENTARY:

EUBEN PARACUELLES, ECONOMIST, NOMURA, SINGAPORE:

'This is clearly a disappointing number. We were looking for

14.4 percent.'

'Looking at the breakdown, it seems like the agriculture

sector was the key drag, and that offset the improvement in the

electronics sector. I think going forward, the export outlook

will remain relatively volatile. The bad weather in December

will probably exacerbate the weakness in agriculture exports.

For electronics, we know that the global economy is still on a

down cycle. The base effects will become much more unfavourable

in the next two to three months. Combining these two, we will

probably see even weaker export growth numbers in the next

quarter or so.'

'This year, export growth will still be relatively modest. A

pick-up will depend a lot on where the electronic cycle will be

and the resolution to some of these issues -- European crisis,

fiscal cliff. There will be some headwinds in these major

markets which makes it very hard to be optimistic in terms of

what the overall export growth numbers will be for the

Philippines this year.'

RADHIKA RAO, ECONOMIST, FORECAST PTE, SINGAPORE:

'November exports rose 5.5 percent year-on-year, way below

bullish market and our estimates and disregarding low base

effects. In nominal terms, receipts at $3.6 billion were the

weakest since Dec 2011, signalling that the non-electronic

manufacturers' have been unable to offset the weakness in the

core export segments.'

'Sharp peso appreciation and underwhelming holiday demand

might have also dampened external sector performance in the

month.'

'For now, we expect shipments to remain lacklustre into

2013, with overall growth still driven by the domestic-led

factors. For the central bank, attention is squarely on the

currency, capital inflows and potential price risks. Today's

sub-consensus print is unlikely to be a catalyst for any action

on the rate front.'

JEFF NG, ECONOMIST, STANDARD CHARTERED BANK, SINGAPORE:

'This may be a one-off but November export growth

underperformed. The result implies that export growth will hover

around 7 percent the whole year rather than the 8 percent I

expected. I still expect December export growth to be positive

and drive GDP growth in Q4. However, headwinds are beginning to

form for exports growth heading into 2013.'

MARKET REACTION:

- The peso was quoted at 40.78 per U.S.

dollar in early deals, flat from Wednesday's close.

- The stock market was not yet open.

BACKGROUND:

- The central bank lowered its 2012 exports and imports

growth forecast to 8 percent and 7 percent respectively in

November, from previous estimates of 10 percent and 12 percent.

- The industry group Semiconductors and Electronics

Industries in the Philippines Inc expects exports of the sector

will post no growth in 2012 due to sluggish demand, but recover

this year and grow 5 percent to 6 percent.

- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco has

said the central bank will likely keep interest rates low this

year and growth should remain on a solid footing, aided by

strong domestic consumption and higher government spending.

- The Philippine economy grew 7.1 percent in July-September

from a year earlier and 1.3 percent from the previous quarter as

strong domestic consumption helped offset weak global demand for

the country's exports.

- The Southeast Asian country provides about 10 percent of

the world's semiconductor manufacturing services, including for

mobile phone chips and micro processors. Semiconductors account

for about three-fifths of exports.

LINK:

- National Statistics Office website http://www.census.gov.ph

(Reporting by Erik Dela Cruz and Karen Lema; Editing by John

Mair)

Keywords: PHILIPPINES ECONOMY/EXPORTS

(karen.lema@thomsonreuters.com)(+632 841-8938)(Reuters Messaging: karen.lema.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

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