2012-12-28 15:44 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
The dollar was mixed in light end-of-year trade in N.Y. on Friday, with a light data calendar, and lingering concerns over the looming U.S. fiscal cliff keeping trade light and nervous. The greenback was steady versus the yen, though moved higher against the CAD and AUD, and lower via the euro and CHF. Familiar ranges mostly held up however, as many remained on holiday, or had closed their books for the year entirely. EUR-USD moved over 1.3200 in early trade, managing highs above 1.3225. USD-JPY meanwhile, was steady just over 86.00. On the economic front, Chicago PMI remained above the 50.0 mark, improving to 51.6, while the November pending home sales index rose to 106.4 from 104.8.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD headed back towards 1.3200 in London, as European stocks posted modest losses. After making an early attempt just over 1.3250 it ran into dollar buyers as U.S. fiscal cliff uncertainty kept markets on the defensive ahead of the weekend. N.Y. trade saw EUR-USD rally some, despite cliff related U.S. equity losses, as positions were tidied up into the end of the year on Monday. The euro managed to recover 1.3225, after opening just over 1.3175.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY headed lower on profit taking in Europe, leaving USD-JPY close to 86.00 versus Asian session highs of 86.63. EUR-JPY was a big mover, dropping from 114.60 in early Europe to 113.30. USD-JPY hovered just over 86.00 through the N.Y. session in very light dealings. Japanese policy risk should encourage yen selling pressure on upticks, but into the weekend U.S. fiscal cliff uncertainty is likely to dampen position taking. Outstanding USD-JPY expiries could attract at 86.00, while bids are noted at 85.75-80 and 85.50.[GBP, USD]
Cable rallied back to 1.6140 after it bottomed out just under 1.6080 during the European morning. However, there is very low market participation out of London and only small volumes moved prices higher. After Asian central bank intervention went through in local currencies overnight there was conjecture that dollar selling against EUR and GBP could go through on dips. Short technical studies are mildly positive, but yesterday's 1.6200-10 highs still represents a potential near-term top.[USD, CHF]
USD-CHF headed back over 0.9150 and extended to 0.9170 in thin trade. Movement in USD-CHF mirrored the EUR-USD correction back to 1.3180, though direct flows via USD-CHF were limited, overall. USD-CHF sellers layered towards 0.9200, which have held since December-16 and are protecting buy stops above. N.Y. participants in fact, were sellers in early trade, which took the pairing back toward 0.9125. The daily chart has pointed to an extended move under 0.9100, but the lack of follow through yesterday has left a more neutral picture.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD was steady on either side of 0.9950 in overnight dealings, after rallying on Thursday on the back of U.S. fiscal cliff concerns. With the Canadian calendar empty, the pairing remained sensitive to risk levels, though with prospects for a solution to the U.S. crisis seen slim at best, USD-CAD upside looks to be a better bet at the moment. Sellers are expected into 0.9980 to the parity level, with stops noted above 1.0000.