2012-12-07 07:20 (UTC)
XE Market Analysis
Movement was limited as focused turn away from the eurozone and back to the U.S. ahead of the NFP data. Asian stocks were supported by optimism on China's outlook and a strong debut for China's PICC. However, appetite to take on risk was generally limited, leaving the USD on a supportive footing. JPY traded at slightly softer levels due to policy risk ahead of the Japanese election, which left USD-JPY close to 82.50. EUR-USD found a modicum of support around 1.2950, but struggled to sustain higher levels following yesterday's plunge after ECB downgraded growth and President Draghi hinted that a rate cut was discussed. Meanwhile, Italian PM Monti won a confidence vote in the lower house and said he has no plans to resign. Specifically for Asia, Australia's trade position deteriorated and posted the biggest deficit since December 2009 as the export sector struggles due to high AUD and falling demand for commodities. Production data is due from Germany and the U.K. today, but for the most part low market participation is likely ahead of the U.S. NFP release.[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD experiences limited upside after the sharp on Thursday following the ECB growth downgrade and Draghi's rate cut hint. Technical watchers eye key chart support at 1.2950. If there is a sustained move under this level then deeper losses may be on the cards. However, it seems likely that ahead of the U.S. NFP release ranges will remain tight. A thin European calendar will see short term accounts key off the rollover in sentiment, which will encourage selling pressure on upticks. The 1.3000 region will now be a near-term pivot point for intra-day traders.[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY moved out of 82.35-40 in early Asia and tested levels over 82.50 on fixing demand and EUR-JPY buy backs following yesterday's deep correction. The cross managed to move just over 107.00, but could not sustain higher levels. There was no appetite to add fresh EUR long positions, while USD-JPY bumped into a wall of offers into 82.60, where exporter hedging has been noted in recent sessions. There are also residual option related sellers on upticks due to outstanding exotics higher up, though liquidity is not as heavy as it was after a series of sizeable expiries this week. We still look for JPY to meet selling pressure on upticks due to Japanese policy risk after the forthcoming election, but a combination of excessive market positioning and a drop off in market participation ahead of the FOMC and the Japan election has reinforced current ranges.[GBP, USD]
Cable took its cue from EUR-USD in Thursday's N.Y. trade, sagging to 1.6040 lows after opening near 1.6125. It is a similar story today, with EUR-USD lack of bounce out of 1.2950 keeping Cable tied to the 1.6050 area. However, a large option expiry at 1.6100 may exert an influence if risk appetite was to pick up over the course of the session. Adding to sterling demand on dips is recent M&A news, along with EUR-GBP corporate hedging on upticks. The Cable upside should be restricted by hedging activity ahead of year-end at 1.6125-30, along with option barriers at 1.6150.[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF is held just under 1.2100 after post-ECB EUR-USD losses overwhelmed the cross on Thursday. Some specs got caught long this week after the market got carried away with Swiss policy risk following the decision by large Swiss banks to charge up to 1% on CHF deposits. However, we do not think this is a precursor to capital control measures or negative deposit rates. USD-CHF has held on to the move over 0.9300 on Thursday amid deep EUR-USD losses, but natural sellers are limiting gains from 0.9340-50, and more are tipped into 0.9370-80. Buyers are likely towards 0.9270 and 0.9250.[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD traded a tight range around 0.9910 after it was unable to sustain a move under 0.9900 on Thursday. Buy interest is layered to good support at November 7 lows of 0.9875, while dealers said offers were moved from the 0.9950 level to 0.9930. The focus for USD-CAD will come from a combination of November employment and U.S. NFP data, though as trade winds down into the year-end the likely of more range bound action is increasing.